Sporting JAX
vs
Louisville City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Louisville City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting JAX vs Louisville City
| Probability | Sporting JAX | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.8% | 19.9% | 63.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 16.8% | 19.9% | 63.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Louisville City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City match preview
Sporting JAX faces Louisville City in the USL Championship with a challenging outlook, as the model assigns a 17% probability of a Sporting JAX victory compared to 63% for Louisville City. The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Sporting JAX projected at 1.20 and Louisville City at 2.41. Recent form also highlights this trend, as Sporting JAX has struggled with five consecutive losses, while Louisville City has recorded a mix of results, including two wins in their last five matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring is estimated at 64%. The head-to-head record favors Louisville City, who have won their only previous encounter against Sporting JAX.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting JAX and Louisville City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Sporting JAX and Louisville City attack and defence ratings
Sporting JAX
Louisville City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.2% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting JAX | 16.8% |
| Draw | 19.9% | |
| Louisville City | 63.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.5% |
| No | 35.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 42.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 36.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City stats
Sporting JAX and Louisville City recent form
| Sporting JAX |
LLLLLW |
| Louisville City |
WDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting JAX and Louisville City season so far
Sporting JAX record
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Sporting JAX vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Louisville City | Sporting JAX | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.