Louisville City
vs
Indy Eleven
Garuda Lions Prediction: Louisville City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Louisville City vs Indy Eleven
| Probability | Louisville City | Draw | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.3% | 24.1% | 18.7% |
| Market | 55.1% | 23.4% | 21.4% |
| Final | 55.7% | 23.6% | 20.8% |
| Edge | +2.2% | +0.6% | -2.8% |
Why Louisville City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Louisville City below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven match preview
Louisville City holds a strong probability of winning at 57% against Indy Eleven, who have a 19% chance of victory. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.92 for Louisville City and 1.02 for Indy Eleven. Both teams are projected to score, with a 56% likelihood for over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Louisville City has recorded a sequence of W-D-W-L-D-D, while Indy Eleven's form shows L-D-L-L-L-W. The head-to-head record in the last three encounters favors Louisville City, who have secured 2 wins compared to Indy Eleven's 1. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Louisville City and Indy Eleven expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Louisville City and Indy Eleven attack and defence ratings
Louisville City
Indy Eleven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page
- Miami FC vs Charleston Battery
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising
Before and after this match
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 55.7% | 1.80 | +2.2% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 55.7% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Indy Eleven | 20.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 42.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven stats
Louisville City and Indy Eleven recent form
| Louisville City |
WDWLDD |
| Indy Eleven |
LDLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Louisville City and Indy Eleven season so far
Louisville City record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Indy Eleven record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Louisville City | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-3 |
| 2024-10-05 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-06 | Louisville City | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 5-3 |
| 2023-07-30 | Louisville City | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-27 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-26 | Louisville City | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.7%, draw 23.5%, away 21.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.88 | 4.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.85 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.88 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 4.21 | 4.40 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .