Charleston Battery
vs
Louisville City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charleston Battery
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charleston Battery vs Louisville City
| Probability | Charleston Battery | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.4% | 19.1% | 13.5% |
| Market | 44.0% | 25.7% | 30.3% |
| Final | 49.8% | 24.1% | 26.1% |
| Edge | +23.4% | -6.6% | -16.8% |
Why Charleston Battery
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Charleston Battery below the model: +23.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City match preview
Charleston Battery will host Louisville City in a USL Championship match on October 10, 2026. The model gives Charleston Battery a strong 67% probability of winning, while Louisville City stands at 14%, with a 19% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Charleston Battery are 2.43, compared to 1.03 for Louisville City, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match. The most likely scoreline suggested is 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Charleston Battery has shown better performance with a record of W-W-D-L-W-W, while Louisville City has struggled, recording D-W-L-D-D-L. The head-to-head results favor Louisville City slightly, with 2 wins compared to Charleston Battery's 1 in their last three encounters. The model indicates a 67% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Charleston Battery and Louisville City attack and defence ratings
Charleston Battery
Louisville City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 49.8% | 2.01 | +23.4% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Charleston Battery win | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charleston Battery | 49.8% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Louisville City | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charleston Battery win | 46.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 32.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 2-0 | 9.3% | |
| 1-1 | 8.6% |
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City stats
Charleston Battery and Louisville City recent form
| Charleston Battery |
WWDLWW |
| Louisville City |
DWLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charleston Battery and Louisville City season so far
Charleston Battery record
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 4-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-18 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-09 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-10 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-07 | Louisville City | Charleston Battery | USL Championship | 4-1 |
| 2022-04-23 | Charleston Battery | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Charleston Battery vs Louisville City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.0%, draw 25.7%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.44 | 3.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.12 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.44 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.58 | 3.24 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .