USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Hartford Athletic
vs
Louisville City
2 – 2 Full time
| 11′ | A. Williams | ||
| 37′ | A. Dia | ||
| 42′ | B. Niang | ||
| 45′ | S. Bird | ||
| 46′ | A. DiaJ. Morris | ||
| 46′ | B. NiangZ. Duncan | ||
| 48′ | J. Morris | ||
| 50′ | B. Fischer | ||
| 51′ | B. Fischer | ||
| 51′ | B. Fischer | ||
| 53′ | Q. Huerman | ||
| 56′ | B. CoffeyB. Njie | ||
| 59′ | B. Njie | ||
| 70′ | B. MakangilaM. Adedokun | ||
| 70′ | A. WilliamsM. Ngalina | ||
| 70′ | S. AnakuA. Obalola | ||
| 73′ | M. Ngalina | ||
| 74′ | Q. HuermanJ. Wilson | ||
| 79′ | K. Adams | ||
| 90′ | J. Moreira |
Hartford Athletic
39%
Draw
26%
Louisville City
35%
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City
| Probability | Hartford Athletic | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.0% | 25.9% | 20.1% |
| Market | 34.5% | 26.0% | 39.5% |
| Final | 39.4% | 25.9% | 34.6% |
| Edge | +19.5% | -0.1% | -19.4% |
Why Hartford Athletic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Hartford Athletic below the model: +19.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
77%
3+ goals
51%
No goals
8%
Hartford Athletic and Louisville City expected goals
Hartford Athletic
1.74
Louisville City
0.98
Total expected goals: 2.72
Hartford Athletic and Louisville City attack and defence ratings
Hartford Athletic
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
0.78 -22%
Louisville City
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City: result vs prediction
Hartford Athletic 2 – 2 Louisville City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 39.4% | 2.54 | +19.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 39.4% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Louisville City | 34.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hartford Athletic win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 46.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-0 | 10.0% |
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City stats
Hartford Athletic and Louisville City recent form
| Hartford Athletic |
DWWDWW |
| Louisville City |
WLDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hartford Athletic and Louisville City going into this match
Hartford Athletic record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Hartford Athletic wins
3Draws
6Louisville City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Louisville City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Louisville City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Hartford Athletic | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-24 | Hartford Athletic | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Louisville City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 6-0 |
| 2023-10-07 | Louisville City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-06-03 | Hartford Athletic | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-15 | Louisville City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-06-25 | Hartford Athletic | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2021-09-07 | Hartford Athletic | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.4%, draw 25.8%, away 39.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.58 | 3.52 | 2.24 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.58 | 3.52 | 2.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.89 | 2.37 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.63 ▼ -0.21
X
3.50 ▲ +0.01
2
2.30 ▲ +0.15
11 snapshots recorded, from .