USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Louisville City
vs
Loudoun United
2 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | E. Davis III | ||
| 17′ | S. Young | ||
| 38′ | R. Serrano | ||
| 45′ | C. Donovan | ||
| 57′ | B. NiangE. Davila | ||
| 57′ | A. DiaJ. Morris | ||
| 60′ | G. LomtadzeC. Torres | ||
| 61′ | S. YoungR. Zouhir | ||
| 65′ | Q. Huerman | ||
| 69′ | Q. HuermanM. Akale | ||
| 71′ | A. WattsR. Aman | ||
| 84′ | K. Awuah | ||
| 85′ | J. MurphyL. Butts | ||
| 85′ | P. NiyongabireMarcos Dias | ||
| 86′ | C. DonovanT. Showunmi | ||
| 86′ | E. PerezS. Gleadle | ||
| 90′ | E. Davila | ||
| 90′ | B. Akinyode |
Louisville City
63%
Draw
21%
Loudoun United
16%
Louisville City vs Loudoun United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Louisville City vs Loudoun United
| Probability | Louisville City | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.5% | 23.6% | 20.9% |
| Market | 65.7% | 19.6% | 14.7% |
| Final | 63.2% | 20.6% | 16.3% |
| Edge | -10.2% | +4.0% | +6.2% |
Why Louisville City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
61%
No goals
5%
Louisville City and Loudoun United expected goals
Louisville City
1.99
Loudoun United
1.16
Total expected goals: 3.16
Louisville City and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings
Louisville City
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
1.17 +17%
Loudoun United
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Louisville City vs Loudoun United: result vs prediction
Louisville City 2 – 1 Loudoun United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Louisville City vs Loudoun United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 63.2% | 1.58 | -10.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 63.2% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Loudoun United | 16.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 44.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Louisville City vs Loudoun United stats
Louisville City and Loudoun United recent form
| Louisville City |
LDDLWD |
| Loudoun United |
LLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Louisville City and Loudoun United going into this match
Louisville City record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Loudoun United record
- They have won 3 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
8Louisville City wins
1Draws
1Loudoun United wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Loudoun United | Louisville City | USL Championship | 3-3 |
| 2025-06-25 | Loudoun United | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-4 |
| 2025-05-31 | Loudoun United | Louisville City | USL League One Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-15 | Louisville City | Loudoun United | US Open Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Louisville City | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-06 | Louisville City | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-20 | Loudoun United | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-23 | Loudoun United | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-09 | Louisville City | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-17 | Louisville City | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Louisville City vs Loudoun United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.9%, draw 19.6%, away 14.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 4.70 | 6.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.45 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.34 | 4.70 | 6.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 5.19 | 6.38 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.40 —
X
4.70 ▲ +0.05
2
6.25 ▲ +0.48
12 snapshots recorded, from .