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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United

1 – 4 Full time

4′E. Davis III
30′W. Kuzain
46′R. ZouhirG. Lomtadze
50′A. Watts
56′C. Torres
58′C. Torres
62′M. GodinhoH. Neville
62′V. AlvaradoT. Roberts
66′N. Adnan
72′E. JaaskelainenA. Luckhurst
73′E. Davis III
75′C. TorresR. Aman
75′A. WattsS. Young
77′W. KuzainR. Somersall
77′K. SadlierR. Pedder
82′E. Davis IIIL. Butts
82′K. AwuahS. Mazzaferro
85′P. NiyongabireMarcos Dias
90′R. Pedder

Hodges StadiumReferee: C. Hernandez

Sporting JAX 33%
Draw 24%
Loudoun United 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting JAXDrawLoudoun United
Model39.1%24.1%36.8%
Market31.4%24.2%44.4%
Final33.4%24.1%42.5%
Edge+7.7%-0.1%-7.6%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting JAX ↓ / Loudoun United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Sporting JAX and Loudoun United expected goals

Sporting JAX 1.78
Loudoun United 1.73

Total expected goals: 3.51

Sporting JAX and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings

Sporting JAX

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 1.73 +73%

Loudoun United

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.30 +30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United: result vs prediction

Sporting JAX 1 – 4 Loudoun United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Loudoun United 42.5% 2.35 -7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.1% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.3% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 63.2% 1.58 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting JAX33.4%
Draw24.1%
Loudoun United42.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.1%
Under 2.531.9%
Both teams to scoreYes69.3%
No30.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.5%
12 (either side)75.9%
X2 (draw or away)66.6%
Handicap -1Loudoun United win19.3%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss63.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-18.2%
1-27.9%

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United stats

Sporting JAX and Loudoun United recent form

newest first
Sporting JAX LLWLWL
Loudoun United LLLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting JAX and Loudoun United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sporting JAX record

  • They have won 3 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Loudoun United record

  • They have won 3 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Sporting JAX wins 1Draws 0Loudoun United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-03Loudoun UnitedSporting JAXUSL Championship2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.5%, draw 24.2%, away 44.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.86 3.75 2.04
Bet365 2.88 3.70 2.00
BetVictor 2.90 3.75 2.10
Betano 2.87 3.75 2.05
Betfair 2.88 3.80 2.00
Marathonbet 2.80 3.75 2.02
Pinnacle 2.95 4.17 2.12
William Hill 2.88 3.70 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▲ +0.29
X 3.75 ▲ +0.17
2 2.04 ▼ -0.22

11 snapshots recorded, from .