Indy Eleven
vs
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
| Probability | Indy Eleven | Draw | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.9% | 30.0% | 41.1% |
| Market | 26.2% | 26.0% | 47.7% |
| Final | 26.9% | 27.0% | 46.1% |
| Edge | +2.7% | +3.9% | -6.6% |
Why Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies match preview
Indy Eleven faces Tampa Bay Rowdies in an upcoming USL Championship match, with model probabilities indicating a 29% chance for Indy Eleven to win, a 30% chance for a draw, and a 41% chance for Tampa Bay Rowdies to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals suggest Indy Eleven will score 1.07, while Tampa Bay Rowdies are projected to net 1.33.
In terms of recent form, Indy Eleven has recorded two draws, three losses, and one win in their last six matches, while Tampa Bay Rowdies have seen one win, two draws, and three losses in their recent outings. The head-to-head record shows Tampa Bay Rowdies winning all three of their last encounters against Indy Eleven. The overall confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies attack and defence ratings
Indy Eleven
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 46.1% | 2.17 | -6.6% | 1.97 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Indy Eleven | 26.9% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 10.8% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies stats
Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies recent form
| Indy Eleven |
DLLLWD |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies |
LDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies season so far
Indy Eleven record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tampa Bay Rowdies record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-3 |
| 2025-06-25 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2024-07-20 | Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-22 | Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-07-30 | Indy Eleven | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-3 |
| 2022-03-19 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2019-10-12 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.2%, draw 26.0%, away 47.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.50 | 3.44 | 1.89 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.97 |
| Marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.44 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.54 | 3.66 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .