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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

1 – 3 Full time

5′E. Kizza
50′B. Rendon
62′B. SchaeferL. Wyke
67′C. Ostrem
72′L. PerezM. Micaletto
73′M. Myers
75′M. Myers
76′C. LindleyA. Mitrano
81′E. KizzaL. Mesanvi
81′M. OmarD. Sing
83′Pedro BeckerK. Henderlong
83′D. AcoffL. Archer
85′S. Cruz
90′M. Micaletto

Michael A. Carroll StadiumReferee: T. Wiseman

Indy Eleven 27%
Draw 27%
Tampa Bay Rowdies 46%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndy ElevenDrawTampa Bay Rowdies
Model28.9%30.0%41.1%
Market26.4%26.0%47.6%
Final27.0%27.0%46.0%
Edge+0.6%+1.0%-1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Tampa Bay Rowdies

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Indy Eleven ↓ / Tampa Bay Rowd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 11% 8% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies expected goals

Indy Eleven 1.07
Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.33

Total expected goals: 2.40

Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies attack and defence ratings

Indy Eleven

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies: result vs prediction

Indy Eleven 1 – 3 Tampa Bay Rowdies

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 46.0% 2.17 -1.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.0% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score No 50.4% 1.98 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.8% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Indy Eleven27.0%
Draw27.0%
Tampa Bay Rowdies46.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.0%
Under 2.557.0%
Both teams to scoreYes49.6%
No50.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.0%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)73.0%
Handicap -1Tampa Bay Rowdies win19.6%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss58.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-110.7%
0-010.4%

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies stats

Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies recent form

newest first
Indy Eleven DLLLWD
Tampa Bay Rowdies LDWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Indy Eleven and Tampa Bay Rowdies going into this match

league record before kick-off

Indy Eleven record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Tampa Bay Rowdies record

  • They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Indy Eleven wins 3Draws 7Tampa Bay Rowdies wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy ElevenUSL Championship1-0
2025-08-02Indy ElevenTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship1-3
2025-06-25Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy ElevenUSL Championship3-1
2024-10-27Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy ElevenUSL Championship3-0
2024-07-20Indy ElevenTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-2
2023-07-22Indy ElevenTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-0
2023-03-12Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy ElevenUSL Championship1-1
2022-07-30Indy ElevenTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship1-3
2022-03-19Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy ElevenUSL Championship2-0
2019-10-12Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy ElevenUSL Championship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.4%, draw 26.0%, away 47.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.50 3.44 1.89
Bet365 3.40 3.70 1.85
BetVictor 3.60 3.50 1.93
Betano 3.45 3.50 1.91
Betfair 3.60 3.50 1.90
Dafabet 3.45 3.55 2.00
Marathonbet 3.42 3.44 1.87
Pinnacle 3.58 3.70 1.97
William Hill 3.40 3.30 1.91

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.45 ▲ +0.35
X 3.50 ▼ -0.10
2 1.91 ▼ -0.11

12 snapshots recorded, from .