Tampa Bay Rowdies
vs
Detroit City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City
| Probability | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Detroit City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 36.7% | 29.8% |
| Market | 50.4% | 29.3% | 20.2% |
| Final | 46.2% | 31.2% | 22.6% |
| Edge | -16.9% | +7.3% | +9.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City match preview
The upcoming match between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City presents an intriguing matchup in the USL Championship. The probabilities indicate a 46% chance of a Tampa Bay Rowdies victory, while a draw stands at 31% and a Detroit City win at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of the Rowdies, with an expected goals tally of 0.88 for Tampa Bay and 0.82 for Detroit City.
In terms of recent form, Tampa Bay Rowdies have recorded three wins, two losses, and a draw in their last six matches, while Detroit City has achieved four wins, one draw, and one loss. Historically, in their last three encounters, Tampa Bay has not secured a win, with one draw and two losses against Detroit City. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.70
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City attack and defence ratings
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Detroit City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 46.2% | 2.16 | -16.9% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 46.2% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Detroit City | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34.0% |
| No | 66.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 12.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 66.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.6% |
| 1-0 | 14.8% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City stats
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City recent form
| Tampa Bay Rowdies |
WLDWLW |
| Detroit City |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Detroit City season so far
Tampa Bay Rowdies record
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Detroit City record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Detroit City | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Detroit City | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Detroit City | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-21 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Detroit City | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2024-07-06 | Detroit City | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Detroit City | USL Championship | 5-1 |
| 2023-04-29 | Detroit City | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-09-17 | Detroit City | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-06 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Detroit City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.1%, draw 29.3%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 2.95 | 4.68 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.10 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.35 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 2.95 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 3.07 | 5.56 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.10 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .