Tampa Bay Rowdies
vs
Sporting JAX
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 0.67.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tampa Bay Rowdies is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX
| Probability | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Sporting JAX |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.0% | 12.0% | 4.9% |
| Market | 83.4% | 10.4% | 6.2% |
| Final | 83.3% | 10.8% | 5.9% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.4% | -0.3% |
Why Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.98 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (our 83.3% × 1.12 − 1).
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX match preview
The upcoming match between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX presents a significant disparity in form and performance. Tampa Bay Rowdies hold an impressive 82% probability of winning, with an expected goal tally of 2.98, suggesting a strong offensive capability. Their recent form shows two wins, a draw, and two losses, indicating some inconsistency but overall a competitive edge. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%.
Conversely, Sporting JAX is struggling, having lost their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at only 0.67, reflecting their difficulties in creating scoring opportunities. With a mere 6% chance of winning, they face a daunting challenge against a Rowdies side that has previously defeated them in their only recent encounter. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is 70%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring game.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.64
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX attack and defence ratings
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Sporting JAX
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 83.3% | 1.20 | -0.1% | 1.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.1% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 83.3% |
| Draw | 10.8% | |
| Sporting JAX | 5.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 89.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 16.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 65.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 17.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.6% |
| 3-0 | 11.5% | |
| 4-0 | 8.6% |
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX stats
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX recent form
| Tampa Bay Rowdies |
WWLDWL |
| Sporting JAX |
LLLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Sporting JAX season so far
Tampa Bay Rowdies record
- They have won 16 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting JAX record
- They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Sporting JAX | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 83.4%, draw 10.4%, away 6.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.08 | 8.20 | 15.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.11 | 9.50 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.12 | 7.30 | 13.50 |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 9.50 | 17.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.12 | 9.80 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.08 | 8.20 | 15.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | 9.25 | 14.31 |
| William Hill | 1.11 | 8.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .