Tampa Bay Rowdies
vs
Miami FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.86.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Tampa Bay Rowdies is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC
| Probability | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Draw | Miami FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.2% | 21.5% | 13.3% |
| Market | 68.2% | 18.8% | 13.0% |
| Final | 67.5% | 19.5% | 13.0% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.7% | +0.1% |
Why Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.86.
Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 67.5% × 1.38 − 1).
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC match preview
The upcoming match between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC shows a strong advantage for the Rowdies, with a 67% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring at an 11% probability. Tampa Bay has demonstrated solid recent form, with three wins in their last five matches, while Miami FC has also performed well, winning four of their last six.
In terms of expected goals, Tampa Bay Rowdies are projected to score 2.11, compared to Miami FC's 0.86. Historical performance further supports Tampa Bay's dominance, as they have won 8 of the last 10 encounters against Miami FC, with only 1 draw and 1 win for Miami. The confidence grade for this match stands at C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC attack and defence ratings
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Miami FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 67.5% | 1.48 | -0.8% | 1.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 67.5% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Miami FC | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 34.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC stats
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC recent form
| Tampa Bay Rowdies |
WWWLDW |
| Miami FC |
LLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC season so far
Tampa Bay Rowdies record
- They have won 18 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Miami FC record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Miami FC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Miami FC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL League One Cup | 1-4 |
| 2025-06-14 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC | USL League One Cup | 3-3 |
| 2025-03-22 | Miami FC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-24 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-11 | Miami FC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 2-5 |
| 2023-08-26 | Miami FC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2023-04-08 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | Miami FC | USL Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 68.2%, draw 18.8%, away 13.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 4.90 | 7.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.20 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.37 | 4.55 | 6.70 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.37 | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 4.90 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.40 | 7.11 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.80 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .