El Paso Locomotive
vs
San Antonio
Garuda Lions Prediction: El Paso Locomotive
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.65.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — El Paso Locomotive is the favourite, not a value bet.
El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio
| Probability | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | San Antonio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 36.3% | 21.9% |
| Market | 43.5% | 28.1% | 28.4% |
| Final | 43.1% | 30.1% | 26.8% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +2.0% | -1.6% |
Why El Paso Locomotive
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.65.
Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 43.1% × 2.17 − 1).
El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio match preview
El Paso Locomotive hosts San Antonio in a USL Championship clash with the home side holding a 43% probability of victory compared to San Antonio's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of El Paso Locomotive, which has an 18% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest El Paso will generate around 1.01, while San Antonio is forecasted to score approximately 0.65.
Recent form shows El Paso Locomotive with mixed results, recording two losses, one win, one draw, and one win in their last five matches. In contrast, San Antonio has been more consistent, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, in their last ten encounters, San Antonio has had the upper hand with five wins compared to El Paso's three.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
El Paso Locomotive and San Antonio expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.66
El Paso Locomotive and San Antonio attack and defence ratings
El Paso Locomotive
San Antonio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 43.1% | 2.32 | -0.4% | 2.17 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 43.1% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| San Antonio | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 76.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.6% |
| No | 68.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.3% |
| 1-0 | 17.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio stats
El Paso Locomotive and San Antonio recent form
| El Paso Locomotive |
LLWLDW |
| San Antonio |
WWDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
El Paso Locomotive and San Antonio season so far
El Paso Locomotive record
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
San Antonio record
- They have won 11 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 30 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | San Antonio | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 0-3 |
| 2026-04-19 | El Paso Locomotive | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-26 | San Antonio | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 5-2 |
| 2025-07-05 | El Paso Locomotive | San Antonio | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-22 | San Antonio | El Paso Locomotive | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-10 | El Paso Locomotive | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2024-06-06 | San Antonio | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-13 | El Paso Locomotive | San Antonio | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-11 | San Antonio | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-02-25 | El Paso Locomotive | San Antonio | Friendlies Clubs | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.5%, draw 28.1%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.18 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.27 | 3.34 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .