San Antonio
vs
Orange County SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Antonio
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.58.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — San Antonio is the favourite, not a value bet.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Antonio vs Orange County SC
| Probability | San Antonio | Draw | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.0% | 32.1% | 15.9% |
| Market | 54.3% | 25.1% | 20.6% |
| Final | 53.7% | 26.9% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +1.7% | -1.2% |
Why San Antonio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.58.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 53.7% × 1.72 − 1).
San Antonio vs Orange County SC match preview
San Antonio hosts Orange County SC in a USL Championship clash, with the model indicating a 52% probability of a home win for San Antonio, while Orange County SC stands at 16%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at a rate of 19%. San Antonio's expected goals sit at 1.26, compared to Orange County SC's 0.58, suggesting a significant advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, San Antonio has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Orange County SC has struggled with five losses and one win. The head-to-head record shows San Antonio with one win and Orange County SC with two wins in their last three encounters. The confidence grade for this match is noted as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Antonio and Orange County SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.84
San Antonio and Orange County SC attack and defence ratings
San Antonio
Orange County SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island
- Louisville City v Detroit City — match page
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion — team news & stats
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX
- Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United — team news & stats
- Phoenix Rising v Lexington — match page
- Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots — team news & stats
Before and after this match
San Antonio vs Orange County SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Antonio | 53.7% | 1.86 | -0.6% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Antonio | 53.7% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Orange County SC | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 72.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.6% |
| No | 67.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Antonio win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.1% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.9% |
| 0-0 | 17.1% | |
| 1-1 | 12.8% |
San Antonio vs Orange County SC stats
San Antonio and Orange County SC recent form
| San Antonio |
WDLDDL |
| Orange County SC |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Antonio and Orange County SC season so far
San Antonio record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orange County SC record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Orange County SC | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Orange County SC | San Antonio | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | San Antonio | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Orange County SC | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | San Antonio | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Orange County SC | San Antonio | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-24 | San Antonio | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 4-0 |
| 2022-10-16 | San Antonio | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2022-04-10 | Orange County SC | San Antonio | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2021-11-21 | Orange County SC | San Antonio | USL Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Antonio vs Orange County SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 25.1%, away 20.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.66 | 4.55 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.83 | 4.45 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .