Orange County SC
vs
Phoenix Rising
Garuda Lions Prediction: Phoenix Rising
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising
| Probability | Orange County SC | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.0% | 24.0% | 44.0% |
| Market | 29.7% | 26.6% | 43.8% |
| Final | 30.3% | 25.9% | 43.8% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -2.6% | +0.2% |
Why Phoenix Rising
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising match preview
In the upcoming match between Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Phoenix Rising holding a 44% chance of victory compared to Orange County SC's 32%. The most likely scoreline forecasted is 1-2 in favor of Phoenix Rising, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.59 for Orange County SC and 1.88 for Phoenix Rising.
Recent form shows Orange County SC struggling with two consecutive losses, while Phoenix Rising has experienced mixed results, winning two of their last five matches. The head-to-head record favors Phoenix Rising slightly, with two wins in the last four encounters compared to one win for Orange County SC and one draw. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals (67%) and both teams scoring (68%).
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising attack and defence ratings
Orange County SC
Phoenix Rising
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Phoenix Rising | 43.8% | 2.28 | +0.2% | 2.17 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 30.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Phoenix Rising | 43.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.5% |
| No | 31.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Phoenix Rising win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 56.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising stats
Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising recent form
| Orange County SC |
LLWLLD |
| Phoenix Rising |
WLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orange County SC and Phoenix Rising season so far
Orange County SC record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Phoenix Rising | Orange County SC | USL League One Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Orange County SC | Phoenix Rising | US Open Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Phoenix Rising | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-31 | Orange County SC | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 4-1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Phoenix Rising | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-26 | Orange County SC | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-06-09 | Phoenix Rising | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Orange County SC | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-01 | Phoenix Rising | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-21 | Orange County SC | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 26.6%, away 43.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.11 | 3.42 | 2.03 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.04 | 3.42 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.08 | 3.69 | 2.17 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .