El Paso Locomotive
vs
Orange County SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: El Paso Locomotive
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC
| Probability | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.0% | 16.2% | 8.9% |
| Market | 57.0% | 23.3% | 19.8% |
| Final | 61.5% | 21.5% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +18.0% | -7.1% | -10.9% |
Why El Paso Locomotive
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices El Paso Locomotive below the model: +18.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC match preview
El Paso Locomotive enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 75%, reflecting their recent form of L-D-W-W-W-W. They have an expected goals figure of 2.64, indicating a solid attacking performance. In contrast, Orange County SC has a lower probability of 9% to win, with an expected goals of just 0.84, and their recent form shows struggles with L-W-L-L-D-D.
Historically, El Paso has faced challenges against Orange County SC, with no wins in their last three encounters, which include one draw and two losses. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of El Paso, with a 68% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored and a 54% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC attack and defence ratings
El Paso Locomotive
Orange County SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 61.5% | 1.63 | +18.0% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 61.5% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Orange County SC | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 54.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 25.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.7% |
| 3-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC stats
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC recent form
| El Paso Locomotive |
LDWWWW |
| Orange County SC |
LWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC season so far
El Paso Locomotive record
- They have won 14 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Orange County SC record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-15 | El Paso Locomotive | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.0%, draw 23.3%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 3.92 | 4.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 3.92 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.33 | 4.63 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .