USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
El Paso Locomotive
vs
Orange County SC
2 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Tony Alfaro | ||
| 17′ | O. Sylla | ||
| 31′ | A. Moreno | ||
| 33′ | A. Romero | ||
| 43′ | N. Benalcazar | ||
| 43′ | B. Farkarlun | ||
| 46′ | E. CalvilloR. Rubin | ||
| 46′ | Tony AlfaroN. Dollenmayer | ||
| 48′ | N. CiottaF. O'Brien | ||
| 51′ | C. Hegardt | ||
| 54′ | A. Mendez | ||
| 63′ | R. AvilaZ. Jones | ||
| 68′ | K. PartidaB. Cambridge | ||
| 70′ | B. FarkarlunN. Cardona | ||
| 83′ | A. MendezD. Gomez | ||
| 86′ | R. DoghmanJ. Johnson | ||
| 90′ | Z. Jones |
El Paso Locomotive
62%
Draw
21%
Orange County SC
17%
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC
| Probability | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.0% | 16.2% | 8.9% |
| Market | 57.5% | 22.8% | 19.7% |
| Final | 61.8% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -1.7% | -2.7% |
Why El Paso Locomotive
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices El Paso Locomotive below our published probability: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
68%
No goals
4%
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC expected goals
El Paso Locomotive
2.63
Orange County SC
0.84
Total expected goals: 3.48
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC attack and defence ratings
El Paso Locomotive
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Orange County SC
Attack
0.87 -13%
Defence
1.47 +47%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC: result vs prediction
El Paso Locomotive 2 – 1 Orange County SC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 61.8% | 1.62 | +4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 61.8% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Orange County SC | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 54.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 25.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.7% |
| 3-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC stats
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC recent form
| El Paso Locomotive |
LDWWWW |
| Orange County SC |
LWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
El Paso Locomotive and Orange County SC going into this match
El Paso Locomotive record
- They have won 14 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Orange County SC record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4El Paso Locomotive wins
2Draws
4Orange County SC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL League One Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-05 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-15 | El Paso Locomotive | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-3 |
| 2024-10-17 | El Paso Locomotive | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-18 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-10 | Orange County SC | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-09 | El Paso Locomotive | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-09 | El Paso Locomotive | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
El Paso Locomotive vs Orange County SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.5%, draw 22.8%, away 19.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.05 | 4.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.95 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.05 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.43 | 4.71 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.59 ▲ +0.06
X
4.00 ▼ -0.25
2
4.64 ▼ -0.16
12 snapshots recorded, from .