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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay

1 – 2 Full time

5′O. Sylla
32′R. Nakamura
45′T. Brewitt
46′D. OtoyaW. Leggett
46′J. LindseyN. Benalcazar
61′S. Lletget
62′K. PartidaS. Kelly
64′R. NakamuraJudson
65′Z. Farnsworth
68′M. PalominoB. Cambridge
68′L. MacKinnonY. Bazini
74′Q. Elliot
75′J. GarciaJ. Belmar
80′C. Hegardt
80′M. WarE. Zubak
81′W. Leggett
89′S. RitchieA. Villasana
89′I. PaulF. Canete
90′N. Ross

Championship Soccer StadiumReferee: M. Thompson

Orange County SC 46%
Draw 25%
Monterey Bay 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrange County SCDrawMonterey Bay
Model42.6%25.5%32.0%
Market47.6%25.4%26.9%
Final46.4%25.4%28.2%
Edge-5.0%+0.0%+5.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Orange County SC

  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orange County ↓ / Monterey Bay → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 12% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Orange County SC and Monterey Bay expected goals

Orange County SC 1.71
Monterey Bay 1.46

Total expected goals: 3.17

Orange County SC and Monterey Bay attack and defence ratings

Orange County SC

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Monterey Bay

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay: result vs prediction

Orange County SC 1 – 2 Monterey Bay

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Orange County SC 46.4% 2.16 -5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.3% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.9% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.6% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.5% 1.74 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orange County SC46.4%
Draw25.4%
Monterey Bay28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
Both teams to scoreYes63.9%
No36.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)53.6%
Handicap -1Orange County SC win22.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss57.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.0%
1-27.7%

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay stats

Orange County SC and Monterey Bay recent form

newest first
Orange County SC WLLDDL
Monterey Bay LLDDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orange County SC and Monterey Bay going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orange County SC record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Monterey Bay record

  • They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Orange County SC wins 1Draws 5Monterey Bay wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-26Monterey BayOrange County SCUSL Championship1-2
2025-07-12Monterey BayOrange County SCUSL Championship2-1
2025-06-01Monterey BayOrange County SCUSL League One Cup3-2
2025-03-23Orange County SCMonterey BayUSL Championship0-3
2024-09-22Monterey BayOrange County SCUSL Championship0-0
2024-04-28Orange County SCMonterey BayUSL Championship2-0
2023-10-15Monterey BayOrange County SCUSL Championship0-1
2023-07-02Orange County SCMonterey BayUSL Championship3-1
2022-09-08Monterey BayOrange County SCUSL Championship1-0
2022-07-10Orange County SCMonterey BayUSL Championship0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.6%, draw 25.4%, away 26.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.98 3.94 3.44
Bet365 1.90 3.40 3.40
BetVictor 1.95 3.60 3.40
Betano 1.91 3.55 3.35
Betfair 1.91 3.60 3.30
Marathonbet 1.89 3.48 3.32
Pinnacle 1.98 3.79 3.46
William Hill 1.91 3.50 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▼ -0.04
X 3.58 ▲ +0.10
2 3.38 ▲ +0.06

10 snapshots recorded, from .