USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Orange County SC
vs
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1 – 0 Full time
| 45′ | M. Palomino | ||
| 46′ | K. PartidaS. Kelly | ||
| 63′ | Y. TsukanomeE. Goldthorp | ||
| 63′ | M. WarS. Wathuta | ||
| 63′ | L. MacKinnonY. Bazini | ||
| 71′ | M. PalominoE. Solis | ||
| 78′ | A. DikwaT. Amann | ||
| 80′ | J. Walti | ||
| 85′ | C. AhlB. Etou | ||
| 86′ | C. HegardtM. Bunbury | ||
| 90′ | Y. Bazini |
Orange County SC
29%
Draw
30%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
41%
Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
| Probability | Orange County SC | Draw | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.5% | 29.3% | 46.1% |
| Market | 31.1% | 30.3% | 38.7% |
| Final | 29.4% | 30.0% | 40.5% |
| Edge | -6.5% | -0.9% | +7.5% |
Why Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Pittsburgh Riverhounds below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
70%
3+ goals
43%
No goals
10%
Orange County SC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds expected goals
Orange County SC
0.97
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1.43
Total expected goals: 2.40
Orange County SC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack and defence ratings
Orange County SC
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.62 +62%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Attack
0.75 -25%
Defence
0.72 -28%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: result vs prediction
Orange County SC 1 – 0 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 40.5% | 2.47 | +7.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 29.4% |
| Draw | 30.0% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 40.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.5% |
| No | 51.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 0-1 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds stats
Orange County SC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds recent form
| Orange County SC |
LLDDLL |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
LWDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orange County SC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds going into this match
Orange County SC record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
2Orange County SC wins
2Draws
0Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-16 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-17 | Orange County SC | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-24 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orange County SC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 30.3%, away 38.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.95 | 2.94 | 2.34 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 2.95 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 2.94 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | 3.06 | 3.12 | 2.46 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.90 ▼ -0.01
X
2.98 ▼ -0.06
2
2.33 ▲ +0.03
10 snapshots recorded, from .