Lexington
vs
Orange County SC
6 – 0 Full time
| 9′ | P. Goodrum | ||
| 15′ | M. Epps | ||
| 24′ | P. Goodrum | ||
| 35′ | Nick Firmino | ||
| 38′ | M. BunburyJ. J. Carter | ||
| 39′ | T. Espy | ||
| 46′ | S. KellyP. Ngoie | ||
| 49′ | P. Goodrum | ||
| 53′ | J. Greene | ||
| 55′ | M. FryT. Scott | ||
| 55′ | Nick FirminoB. P. Rodrigues | ||
| 64′ | O. SyllaM. Palomino | ||
| 66′ | N. OkelloM. Tschantret | ||
| 66′ | J. GreeneM. Muir | ||
| 72′ | M. EppsM. Yosef | ||
| 83′ | S. WathutaM. War | ||
| 85′ | M. Tschantret |
Lexington vs Orange County SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lexington vs Orange County SC
| Probability | Lexington | Draw | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.3% | 19.3% | 15.4% |
| Market | 59.2% | 22.9% | 17.9% |
| Final | 60.7% | 22.0% | 17.3% |
| Edge | +6.1% | -3.6% | -2.5% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lexington below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lexington and Orange County SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.63
Lexington and Orange County SC attack and defence ratings
Lexington
Orange County SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lexington vs Orange County SC: result vs prediction
Lexington 6 – 0 Orange County SC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Lexington vs Orange County SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 60.7% | 1.65 | +6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 60.7% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Orange County SC | 17.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 34.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.4% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Lexington vs Orange County SC stats
Lexington and Orange County SC recent form
| Lexington |
WLLLWL |
| Orange County SC |
LDDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lexington and Orange County SC going into this match
Lexington record
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orange County SC record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington vs Orange County SC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Orange County SC | Lexington | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Lexington | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Orange County SC | Lexington | USL Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lexington vs Orange County SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.1%, draw 22.9%, away 18.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 3.95 | 5.26 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 3.95 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.32 | 5.34 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .