Monterey Bay
vs
Lexington
2 – 3 Full time
| 1′ | Nick Firmino | ||
| 5′ | Z. Farnsworth | ||
| 23′ | Z. Farnsworth | ||
| 46′ | F. CaneteF. Barajas | ||
| 54′ | J. Garcia | ||
| 55′ | K. Egwu | ||
| 63′ | Nick FirminoB. P. Rodrigues | ||
| 64′ | JudsonW. Leggett | ||
| 70′ | M. FryM. Yosef | ||
| 74′ | P. Goodrum | ||
| 80′ | M. Epps | ||
| 83′ | S. LletgetD. Otoya | ||
| 85′ | B. FerriM. Tschantret | ||
| 85′ | M. EppsT. Scott | ||
| 85′ | D. Otoya | ||
| 86′ | N. RossA. Villasana | ||
| 90′ | K. Egwu | ||
| 90′ | K. Egwu | ||
| 90′ | F. Barajas |
Monterey Bay vs Lexington overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterey Bay vs Lexington
| Probability | Monterey Bay | Draw | Lexington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.2% | 21.4% | 62.4% |
| Market | 29.9% | 26.0% | 44.1% |
| Final | 26.5% | 24.9% | 48.7% |
| Edge | -13.7% | -4.6% | +18.3% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lexington below the model: +18.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterey Bay and Lexington expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Monterey Bay and Lexington attack and defence ratings
Monterey Bay
Lexington
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monterey Bay vs Lexington: result vs prediction
Monterey Bay 2 – 3 Lexington
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Monterey Bay vs Lexington markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 48.7% | 2.05 | +18.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterey Bay | 26.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Lexington | 48.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 40.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 37.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
Monterey Bay vs Lexington stats
Monterey Bay and Lexington recent form
| Monterey Bay |
LDDLDL |
| Lexington |
WWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterey Bay and Lexington going into this match
Monterey Bay record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay vs Lexington head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Lexington | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lexington | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-06-08 | Monterey Bay | Lexington | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Lexington | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterey Bay vs Lexington odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.9%, draw 26.0%, away 44.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.05 | 3.42 | 2.06 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.42 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.18 | 3.67 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .