El Paso Locomotive
vs
Sacramento Republic
Garuda Lions Prediction: El Paso Locomotive
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic
| Probability | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.7% | 28.5% | 25.7% |
| Market | 35.1% | 27.5% | 37.4% |
| Final | 37.7% | 27.8% | 34.5% |
| Edge | +10.7% | +1.0% | -11.7% |
Why El Paso Locomotive
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices El Paso Locomotive below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic match preview
El Paso Locomotive hosts Sacramento Republic in a USL Championship match with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, El Paso Locomotive has a 46% probability of winning, while Sacramento Republic stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of El Paso, with an expected goals tally of 1.48 for El Paso and 1.05 for Sacramento.
Both teams have shown varying recent form; El Paso Locomotive has recorded three wins, one loss, and one draw in their last five matches, while Sacramento Republic has two wins and three draws. In their last three encounters, El Paso has secured two victories against Sacramento's one win. The model indicates a 51% chance for both teams to score and a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic attack and defence ratings
El Paso Locomotive
Sacramento Republic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington — team news & stats
Before and after this match
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 37.7% | 2.65 | +10.7% | 2.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 37.7% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Sacramento Republic | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 23.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 54.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic stats
El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic recent form
| El Paso Locomotive |
WLDWWW |
| Sacramento Republic |
DDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
El Paso Locomotive and Sacramento Republic season so far
El Paso Locomotive record
- They have won 15 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-15 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-19 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-03-13 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2021-09-12 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 27.4%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.28 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.28 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.64 | 3.52 | 2.55 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .