Sacramento Republic
vs
Oakland Roots
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sacramento Republic
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sacramento Republic is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots
| Probability | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Oakland Roots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 31.8% | 21.8% |
| Market | 61.0% | 23.2% | 15.8% |
| Final | 57.4% | 25.3% | 17.3% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +2.2% | +1.5% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.78.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (our 57.4% × 1.53 − 1).
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots match preview
Sacramento Republic enters this match with a probability of 46% to win, while Oakland Roots has a 22% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Sacramento Republic, with an expected goals tally of 1.26 for Sacramento and 0.78 for Oakland. Recent form shows Sacramento with two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while Oakland has also performed well, with two wins but one loss in their recent outings.
In terms of goals, there is a 33% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 40% chance of scoring. Historically, Sacramento Republic has been dominant in their last three encounters against Oakland Roots, winning twice and drawing once. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sacramento Republic and Oakland Roots expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Sacramento Republic and Oakland Roots attack and defence ratings
Sacramento Republic
Oakland Roots
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 57.4% | 1.74 | -3.7% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 57.4% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Oakland Roots | 17.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 0-0 | 14.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.1% |
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots stats
Sacramento Republic and Oakland Roots recent form
| Sacramento Republic |
WDDWWD |
| Oakland Roots |
WDDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sacramento Republic and Oakland Roots season so far
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Oakland Roots record
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic | USL League One Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Sacramento Republic | Oakland Roots | USL Championship | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-04 | Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-21 | Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-5 |
| 2024-06-16 | Sacramento Republic | Oakland Roots | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2023-09-03 | Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-21 | Sacramento Republic | Oakland Roots | USL Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 23.2%, away 15.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 3.95 | 6.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 3.90 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 3.95 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.17 | 5.68 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.80 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .