Sacramento Republic
vs
Colorado Springs
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sacramento Republic
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs
| Probability | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Colorado Springs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 29.7% | 21.1% |
| Market | 49.2% | 27.1% | 23.6% |
| Final | 49.3% | 27.8% | 23.0% |
| Edge | +0.0% | +2.6% | -2.6% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.84.
Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs match preview
Sacramento Republic enters this match with a 49% probability of winning, while Colorado Springs has a 21% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Sacramento Republic, with a 14% likelihood. The expected goals for Sacramento Republic is 1.41, compared to Colorado Springs' 0.84, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from the home team.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Sacramento Republic recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Colorado Springs has three draws and three wins. In their last three encounters, Sacramento Republic has secured two victories and one draw against Colorado Springs, who has not won in this matchup. The overall model confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sacramento Republic and Colorado Springs expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Sacramento Republic and Colorado Springs attack and defence ratings
Sacramento Republic
Colorado Springs
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 49.3% | 2.03 | +0.0% | 1.92 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 49.3% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Colorado Springs | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.3% |
| No | 55.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 24.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs stats
Sacramento Republic and Colorado Springs recent form
| Sacramento Republic |
DWWDWD |
| Colorado Springs |
DDDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sacramento Republic and Colorado Springs season so far
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Colorado Springs record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Colorado Springs | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Colorado Springs | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-23 | Sacramento Republic | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sacramento Republic vs Colorado Springs odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.2%, draw 27.1%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.36 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.36 | 3.76 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.53 | 3.89 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .