Garuda Lions
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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic

1 – 1 Full time

9′A. Ordonez
31′R. Spaulding
32′A. Rodriguez
45′Ian
46′A. RodriguezM. Rodriguez
46′A. MidenceJ. Gurr
54′R. SpauldingM. Benitez
60′IanJ. Sangwa
60′W. WilsonK. Elmedkhar
60′B. DialloJ. Webber
69′D. CrisostomoJ. Casas
78′F. AjagoC. Jennings
83′A. CissokoD. Pierre
86′A. OrdonezW. Eisner
89′M. Rodriguez
90′L. Dorsey

ONEOK FieldReferee: E. Osmanovic

FC Tulsa 34%
Draw 31%
Sacramento Republic 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC TulsaDrawSacramento Republic
Model37.3%33.8%28.9%
Market33.4%30.0%36.6%
Final34.3%31.0%34.7%
Edge+3.9%+3.7%-7.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Sacramento Republic

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Tulsa ↓ / Sacramento Rep → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 11% 1 14% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 60%
3+ goals 31%
No goals 15%

FC Tulsa and Sacramento Republic expected goals

FC Tulsa 1.06
Sacramento Republic 0.90

Total expected goals: 1.96

FC Tulsa and Sacramento Republic attack and defence ratings

FC Tulsa

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Sacramento Republic

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic: result vs prediction

FC Tulsa 1 – 1 Sacramento Republic

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sacramento Republic 34.7% 2.88 -7.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 68.7% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score No 59.9% 1.67 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.0% 1.45 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.0% 1.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Tulsa34.3%
Draw31.0%
Sacramento Republic34.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.531.3%
Under 2.568.7%
Both teams to scoreYes40.1%
No59.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.3%
12 (either side)69.0%
X2 (draw or away)65.7%
Handicap -1Sacramento Republic win10.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss71.0%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.4%
1-114.8%
1-013.6%

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic stats

FC Tulsa and Sacramento Republic recent form

newest first
FC Tulsa WDDLDW
Sacramento Republic WWDWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Tulsa and Sacramento Republic going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Tulsa record

  • They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Sacramento Republic record

  • They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FC Tulsa wins 4Draws 3Sacramento Republic wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-06FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-0
2026-03-08Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship2-0
2025-06-08Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship0-1
2025-03-29FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-0
2024-06-23FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship0-0
2024-04-14Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship1-1
2023-04-29FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-1
2022-03-27Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship2-1
2020-03-08Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship1-1
2019-10-06FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 30.0%, away 36.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.80 3.30 2.54
Bet365 2.62 3.00 2.45
Betano 2.70 3.00 2.52
Betfair 2.63 3.00 2.45
Marathonbet 2.72 2.90 2.46
Pinnacle 2.87 3.12 2.59
William Hill 2.70 3.00 2.45

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▼ -0.07
X 3.00 ▼ -0.10
2 2.46 ▲ +0.12

10 snapshots recorded, from .