Lexington
vs
FC Tulsa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lexington
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Lexington vs FC Tulsa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lexington vs FC Tulsa
| Probability | Lexington | Draw | FC Tulsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.7% | 26.3% | 20.0% |
| Market | 53.9% | 25.2% | 20.9% |
| Final | 53.8% | 25.5% | 20.7% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +1.1% | -0.9% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa match preview
Lexington enters this match against FC Tulsa with a strong probability of winning at 54%, while FC Tulsa sits at 21%. The expected goals for Lexington are 1.69 compared to FC Tulsa's 0.95, indicating a potential advantage for the home side. Recent form shows Lexington with three wins in their last four matches, contrasting with FC Tulsa's more mixed results, including three draws in their last five outings.
Historically, the head-to-head record favors FC Tulsa, who have won two of the last three encounters, with one match ending in a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Lexington, occurring with an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a near-even chance of both teams scoring, sitting at 51%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lexington and FC Tulsa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Lexington and FC Tulsa attack and defence ratings
Lexington
FC Tulsa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Sporting JAX v Birmingham Legion — match page
- Charleston Battery vs Louisville City — team news & stats
- Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic — match page
- Miami FC vs Loudoun United — team news & stats
- Detroit City vs Rhode Island
- El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC — match page
- New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Lexington vs FC Tulsa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 53.8% | 1.86 | -0.3% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 53.8% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| FC Tulsa | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 46.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 2-0 | 10.2% |
Lexington vs FC Tulsa stats
Lexington and FC Tulsa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lexington and FC Tulsa season so far
Lexington record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Tulsa record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Lexington vs FC Tulsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | FC Tulsa | Lexington | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | FC Tulsa | Lexington | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Lexington | FC Tulsa | USL Championship | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lexington vs FC Tulsa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.9%, draw 25.2%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.65 | 4.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 1.74 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.78 | 4.85 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .