Las Vegas Lights
vs
Lexington
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lexington
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington
| Probability | Las Vegas Lights | Draw | Lexington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 26.1% | 48.7% |
| Market | 30.0% | 25.3% | 44.7% |
| Final | 28.8% | 25.5% | 45.7% |
| Edge | -4.8% | +0.8% | +4.0% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lexington below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington match preview
Las Vegas Lights face Lexington in an upcoming USL Championship match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Lexington holds a 49% chance of winning, while Las Vegas Lights have a 25% chance, and a draw sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2 in favor of Lexington, with expected goals of 1.18 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.71 for Lexington.
Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 58% probability for both teams to find the net and a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. Recent form shows Las Vegas Lights with mixed results (L-W-L-D-W-L), while Lexington comes in with stronger momentum (D-W-W-W-W-L). The head-to-head record favors Las Vegas Lights slightly, with 2 wins to Lexington's 1 in their last 4 encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Las Vegas Lights and Lexington expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Las Vegas Lights and Lexington attack and defence ratings
Las Vegas Lights
Lexington
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic v Brooklyn — match page
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Detroit City — match page
- Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats
- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising
- Monterey Bay v Colorado Springs — match page
Before and after this match
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 45.7% | 2.19 | +4.0% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Vegas Lights | 28.8% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Lexington | 45.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington stats
Las Vegas Lights and Lexington recent form
| Las Vegas Lights |
LWLDWL |
| Lexington |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Las Vegas Lights and Lexington season so far
Las Vegas Lights record
- They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington record
- They have won 13 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Lexington | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Las Vegas Lights | Lexington | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Vegas Lights | Lexington | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Lexington | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.9%, draw 25.3%, away 44.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.05 | 3.56 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.56 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.19 | 3.72 | 2.11 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .