Phoenix Rising
vs
Las Vegas Lights
Garuda Lions Prediction: Phoenix Rising
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights
| Probability | Phoenix Rising | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 28.7% | 35.3% |
| Market | 50.3% | 24.2% | 25.5% |
| Final | 46.7% | 25.3% | 28.0% |
| Edge | -14.3% | +4.5% | +9.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights match preview
In this USL Championship matchup, Phoenix Rising faces Las Vegas Lights with model probabilities indicating a close contest. Phoenix Rising has a 36% chance of winning, while Las Vegas Lights is slightly behind at 35%, and a draw stands at 29%. The expected goals suggest a tight game, with Phoenix Rising at 1.33 and Las Vegas Lights at 1.30.
Recent form shows Phoenix Rising with mixed results, recording two losses, one win, two draws, while Las Vegas Lights has had a more erratic performance with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Phoenix Rising has secured one win and two draws against Las Vegas Lights, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights attack and defence ratings
Phoenix Rising
Las Vegas Lights
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Phoenix Rising | 46.7% | 2.14 | -14.3% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Phoenix Rising | 46.7% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Phoenix Rising win | 16.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.3% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights stats
Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights recent form
| Phoenix Rising |
LLLWDW |
| Las Vegas Lights |
WLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights season so far
Phoenix Rising record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Vegas Lights record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Las Vegas Lights | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-06 | Phoenix Rising | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-29 | Las Vegas Lights | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.3%, draw 24.2%, away 25.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.74 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.74 | 3.54 |
| Pinnacle | 1.83 | 4.14 | 3.56 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .