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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights

3 – 2 Full time

24′I. Sacko
32′G. Studenhofft
38′D. FloresL. Biasi
45′T. Henry
45′I. Sacko
46′K. AraseC. Ambursley
46′C. LockerM. Arteaga
46′B. OfeimuN. Jones
59′A. Essengue
64′G. StudenhofftD. Badji
68′K. ScottP. Leal
77′P. Leal
78′J. RodriguezB. Pope
83′T. SchmittC. Smith
83′I. SackoA. Pelayo
85′O. Anderson
90′P. Mar Boye
90′D. Badji

Wild Horse Pass StadiumReferee: E. Lezama

Phoenix Rising 47%
Draw 25%
Las Vegas Lights 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPhoenix RisingDrawLas Vegas Lights
Model36.0%28.7%35.3%
Market50.5%24.2%25.3%
Final46.9%25.3%27.8%
Edge-3.6%+1.1%+2.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Phoenix Rising ↓ / Las Vegas Ligh → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 8% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights expected goals

Phoenix Rising 1.32
Las Vegas Lights 1.31

Total expected goals: 2.64

Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights attack and defence ratings

Phoenix Rising

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Las Vegas Lights

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights: result vs prediction

Phoenix Rising 3 – 2 Las Vegas Lights

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Phoenix Rising 46.9% 2.13 -3.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.9% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.9% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.1% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Phoenix Rising46.9%
Draw25.3%
Las Vegas Lights27.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%
Both teams to scoreYes54.9%
No45.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.2%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)53.1%
Handicap -1Phoenix Rising win16.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss64.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
0-08.4%
2-18.2%

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights stats

Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights recent form

newest first
Phoenix Rising LLLWDW
Las Vegas Lights WLDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Phoenix Rising and Las Vegas Lights going into this match

league record before kick-off

Phoenix Rising record

  • They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Las Vegas Lights record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Phoenix Rising wins 4Draws 4Las Vegas Lights wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-02Las Vegas LightsPhoenix RisingUSL Championship1-1
2026-02-14Phoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsFriendlies Clubs0-1
2025-09-06Phoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship0-0
2025-05-29Las Vegas LightsPhoenix RisingUSL Championship0-1
2024-09-29Phoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship1-2
2024-06-02Las Vegas LightsPhoenix RisingUSL Championship0-0
2023-08-27Las Vegas LightsPhoenix RisingUSL Championship2-3
2023-05-27Phoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship0-1
2022-08-07Phoenix RisingLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship0-0
2022-06-25Las Vegas LightsPhoenix RisingUSL Championship3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 24.2%, away 25.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.78 3.74 3.62
Bet365 1.80 3.70 3.70
BetVictor 1.80 3.80 3.75
Betano 1.83 3.70 3.50
Betfair 1.75 3.80 3.60
Dafabet 1.87 4.10 3.40
Marathonbet 1.76 3.74 3.54
Pinnacle 1.84 4.20 3.61
William Hill 1.80 3.75 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.80 —
X 3.75 ▲ +0.05
2 3.60 —

10 snapshots recorded, from .