USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
New Mexico United
vs
Phoenix Rising
2 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | G. Hurst | ||
| 22′ | D. Flores | ||
| 35′ | O. Jabang | ||
| 43′ | K. Arase | ||
| 46′ | D. RiveraT. Schmitt | ||
| 60′ | V. NoelZ. Bailey | ||
| 60′ | G. HurstJ. Rennicks | ||
| 64′ | J. TorresH. Avayevu | ||
| 64′ | D. FloresC. Ambursley | ||
| 65′ | C. Dennis | ||
| 72′ | K. Arase | ||
| 73′ | J. Melto QuiahC. Nava | ||
| 73′ | C. DennisJ. LaCava | ||
| 76′ | K. AraseC. Smith | ||
| 80′ | J. Moursou | ||
| 81′ | C. Wilkerson | ||
| 83′ | A. EssengueL. Biasi | ||
| 84′ | M. HowellL. Archimede | ||
| 90′ | D. Gomez | ||
| 90′ | C. Gloster |
New Mexico United
46%
Draw
24%
Phoenix Rising
29%
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.5% | 22.0% | 19.5% |
| Market | 41.9% | 25.3% | 32.8% |
| Final | 46.0% | 24.5% | 29.5% |
| Edge | +16.6% | -3.3% | -13.4% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.20.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +16.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising expected goals
New Mexico United
2.17
Phoenix Rising
1.20
Total expected goals: 3.37
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Phoenix Rising
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.24 +24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising: result vs prediction
New Mexico United 2 – 1 Phoenix Rising
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 46.0% | 2.17 | +16.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 46.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Phoenix Rising | 29.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising stats
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising recent form
| New Mexico United |
LLDDDW |
| Phoenix Rising |
LLWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising going into this match
New Mexico United record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5New Mexico United wins
1Draws
4Phoenix Rising wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL League One Cup | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-04 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-10 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-31 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-22 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 25.3%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 4.04 | 2.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.55 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.56 | 2.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.80 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.17 ▲ +0.21
X
3.60 ▼ -0.05
2
2.77 ▼ -0.29
12 snapshots recorded, from .