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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United

1 – 0 Full time

19′W. Wilson
45′N. Hamalainen
46′M. HowellJ. LaCava
50′W. Eisner
54′N. Hamalainen
54′N. Hamalainen
57′J. Webber
59′C. WilkersonV. Noel
59′C. NavaT. Blackett
63′W. WilsonO. Damm
68′C. DennisL. Archimede
69′J. Melto QuiahJ. Rennicks
74′Ian
78′A. OrdonezR. Cabral
78′IanJ. Sangwa
86′L. DorseyS. Lukic
86′J. WebberB. Diallo
90′L. Archimede

ONEOK Field

FC Tulsa 46%
Draw 27%
New Mexico United 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC TulsaDrawNew Mexico United
Model41.9%28.2%29.9%
Market46.9%26.1%27.0%
Final45.6%26.6%27.8%
Edge-5.0%+2.1%+2.9%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Tulsa

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Tulsa ↓ / New Mexico Uni → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 7% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 7% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

FC Tulsa and New Mexico United expected goals

FC Tulsa 1.47
New Mexico United 1.20

Total expected goals: 2.67

FC Tulsa and New Mexico United attack and defence ratings

FC Tulsa

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.79 -21%

New Mexico United

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United: result vs prediction

FC Tulsa 1 – 0 New Mexico United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Tulsa 45.6% 2.19 -5.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.1% 2.00 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.1% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.1% 1.72 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Tulsa45.6%
Draw26.6%
New Mexico United27.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%
Both teams to scoreYes55.1%
No44.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.2%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)54.4%
Handicap -1FC Tulsa win21.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss58.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
2-19.0%
1-08.9%

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United stats

FC Tulsa and New Mexico United recent form

newest first
FC Tulsa DDLDWW
New Mexico United LDDDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Tulsa and New Mexico United going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Tulsa record

  • They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New Mexico United record

  • They have won 12 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Tulsa wins 2Draws 4New Mexico United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-16New Mexico UnitedFC TulsaUSL Championship1-0
2025-11-16FC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship3-0
2025-09-14New Mexico UnitedFC TulsaUSL Championship0-1
2025-08-10FC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship5-2
2024-10-13FC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship1-1
2024-08-15New Mexico UnitedFC TulsaUSL Championship3-3
2023-08-27New Mexico UnitedFC TulsaUSL Championship2-1
2022-07-14FC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship1-2
2019-10-13FC TulsaNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship2-1
2019-03-21New Mexico UnitedFC TulsaUSL Championship2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 26.1%, away 27.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.02 3.86 3.38
Bet365 1.95 3.30 3.40
Betano 1.93 3.45 3.45
Betfair 1.91 3.50 3.30
Marathonbet 1.92 3.46 3.24
Pinnacle 2.03 3.73 3.38
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.10
X 3.50 ▼ -0.02
2 3.38 ▼ -0.22

6 snapshots recorded, from .