USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
New Mexico United
vs
Sacramento Republic
2 – 3 Full time
| 12′ | M. Rodriguez | ||
| 45′ | J. Melto QuiahC. Wilkerson | ||
| 45′ | G. Hurst | ||
| 45′ | C. Nava | ||
| 46′ | V. NoelJ. Rennicks | ||
| 49′ | M. Rodriguez | ||
| 57′ | J. TimmerF. Kleemann | ||
| 67′ | R. SpauldingT. Wolff | ||
| 67′ | A. MidenceA. Essel | ||
| 67′ | C. JenningsK. Edwards | ||
| 71′ | M. Rodriguez | ||
| 73′ | G. Hurst | ||
| 74′ | C. NavaG. Zelalem | ||
| 74′ | M. HowellL. Archimede | ||
| 78′ | K. Edwards | ||
| 82′ | L. Archimede | ||
| 85′ | L. Archimede | ||
| 86′ | D. Crisostomo | ||
| 86′ | C. DennisM. Vargas | ||
| 86′ | J. CasasA. Rodriguez | ||
| 90′ | F. Kleemann |
New Mexico United
30%
Draw
28%
Sacramento Republic
42%
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.3% | 32.5% | 29.2% |
| Market | 27.6% | 26.7% | 45.7% |
| Final | 30.3% | 28.2% | 41.6% |
| Edge | +10.8% | +5.7% | -16.5% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
86%
2+ goals
63%
3+ goals
35%
No goals
14%
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic expected goals
New Mexico United
1.14
Sacramento Republic
0.96
Total expected goals: 2.10
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Attack
1.25 +25%
Defence
0.93 -7%
Sacramento Republic
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
0.61 -39%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic: result vs prediction
New Mexico United 2 – 3 Sacramento Republic
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 41.6% | 2.41 | -16.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.8% | 1.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 30.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Sacramento Republic | 41.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.3% |
| No | 56.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 11.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 70.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 1-0 | 12.6% |
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic stats
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic recent form
| New Mexico United |
DDDWLW |
| Sacramento Republic |
DWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Sacramento Republic going into this match
New Mexico United record
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3New Mexico United wins
1Draws
6Sacramento Republic wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-30 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 4-0 |
| 2024-09-19 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-21 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-07-23 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-23 | Sacramento Republic | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-08-04 | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 26.7%, away 45.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.38 | 3.30 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.45 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.52 | 3.59 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.30 ▲ +0.26
X
3.40 ▲ +0.20
2
1.99 ▼ -0.16
10 snapshots recorded, from .