USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Sacramento Republic
vs
Las Vegas Lights
3 – 2 Full time
| 13′ | O. Anderson | ||
| 35′ | O. Anderson | ||
| 36′ | M. Rodriguez | ||
| 38′ | C. Jennings | ||
| 50′ | C. Locker | ||
| 56′ | C. Pinzon | ||
| 58′ | T. Wolff | ||
| 59′ | G. Probo | ||
| 68′ | R. SpauldingF. Kleemann | ||
| 69′ | C. JenningsK. Edwards | ||
| 73′ | M. Ybarra | ||
| 74′ | J. Casas | ||
| 77′ | M. YbarraK. Scott | ||
| 77′ | B. PopeT. Antonoglou | ||
| 77′ | J. CasasB. Willey | ||
| 78′ | O. AndersonM. Arteaga | ||
| 82′ | K. Edwards | ||
| 86′ | A. MidenceM. Benitez | ||
| 86′ | C. LockerP. Leal | ||
| 87′ | T. WolffA. Rodriguez | ||
| 90′ | K. Edwards |
Sacramento Republic
55%
Draw
26%
Las Vegas Lights
18%
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights
| Probability | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 31.4% | 18.0% |
| Market | 56.8% | 24.9% | 18.3% |
| Final | 55.3% | 26.5% | 18.2% |
| Edge | -6.2% | +6.5% | -0.3% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.67.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
85%
2+ goals
60%
3+ goals
32%
No goals
15%
Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
Sacramento Republic
1.31
Las Vegas Lights
0.67
Total expected goals: 1.98
Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights attack and defence ratings
Sacramento Republic
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.69 -31%
Las Vegas Lights
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
0.85 -15%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: result vs prediction
Sacramento Republic 3 – 2 Las Vegas Lights
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 55.3% | 1.81 | -6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 55.3% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36.9% |
| No | 63.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.8% |
| 0-0 | 15.1% | |
| 1-1 | 13.4% |
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights stats
Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights recent form
| Sacramento Republic |
WDWDDD |
| Las Vegas Lights |
DWLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights going into this match
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Las Vegas Lights record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
5Sacramento Republic wins
2Draws
3Las Vegas Lights wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Las Vegas Lights | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Las Vegas Lights | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-06-01 | Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 5-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Las Vegas Lights | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | Las Vegas Lights | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-07-04 | Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-07-30 | Las Vegas Lights | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-21 | Las Vegas Lights | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 24.9%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.62 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 3.74 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.06 | 5.09 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.62 ▲ +0.09
X
3.70 ▼ -0.14
2
5.03 ▲ +0.03
6 snapshots recorded, from .