Phoenix Rising
vs
Lexington
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lexington
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.64.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Phoenix Rising vs Lexington
| Probability | Phoenix Rising | Draw | Lexington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 21.2% | 52.5% |
| Market | 40.3% | 25.2% | 34.5% |
| Final | 36.8% | 24.2% | 39.0% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -1.0% | +4.5% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.33 vs 1.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lexington below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +9.2% per unit staked (our 39.0% × 2.80 − 1).
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington match preview
Phoenix Rising faces Lexington in a matchup where the visiting team holds a significant advantage according to our model. Lexington has a 52% probability of winning, compared to Phoenix Rising's 26%. The expected goals for Phoenix Rising stand at 1.64, while Lexington is projected to score 2.32. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Lexington, with an 8% probability.
Recent form shows Phoenix Rising with mixed results, recording two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Lexington is on a strong run, having won five consecutive games and drawn one. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of goals, with a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% probability that both teams will score. In their last three encounters, Lexington has won all matches against Phoenix Rising.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Phoenix Rising and Lexington expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.97
Phoenix Rising and Lexington attack and defence ratings
Phoenix Rising
Lexington
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 39.0% | 2.56 | +4.5% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Phoenix Rising | 36.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Lexington | 39.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% |
| No | 26.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington stats
Phoenix Rising and Lexington recent form
| Phoenix Rising |
WWLLLW |
| Lexington |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Phoenix Rising and Lexington season so far
Phoenix Rising record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Lexington | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Lexington | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Phoenix Rising | Lexington | USL Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 25.2%, away 34.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.52 | 2.69 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.55 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.52 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.75 | 2.74 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .