USL Championship
·
Full time
·Quarter-finals
Sacramento Republic
vs
El Paso Locomotive
2 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | C. Jennings | ||
| 21′ | A. Mendez | ||
| 46′ | R. RuizGabriel Torres | ||
| 57′ | M. Benitez | ||
| 61′ | A. QuezadaR. Avila | ||
| 65′ | M. Malango | ||
| 66′ | J. Gurr | ||
| 71′ | A. MorenoN. Dollenmayer | ||
| 71′ | C. JenningsK. Edwards | ||
| 72′ | M. MalangoR. Spaulding | ||
| 81′ | M. RodriguezB. Willey | ||
| 88′ | E. CalvilloD. Gomez | ||
| 88′ | R. CoronadoC. Sainte |
Sacramento Republic
53%
Draw
26%
El Paso Locomotive
21%
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive
| Probability | Sacramento Republic | Draw | El Paso Locomotive |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.7% | 30.7% | 25.6% |
| Market | 56.0% | 25.1% | 18.9% |
| Final | 52.9% | 26.5% | 20.6% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +1.4% | +1.7% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
88%
2+ goals
67%
3+ goals
39%
No goals
12%
Sacramento Republic and El Paso Locomotive expected goals
Sacramento Republic
1.31
El Paso Locomotive
0.94
Total expected goals: 2.25
Sacramento Republic and El Paso Locomotive attack and defence ratings
Sacramento Republic
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
0.75 -25%
El Paso Locomotive
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.83 -17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive: result vs prediction
Sacramento Republic 2 – 1 El Paso Locomotive
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Quarter-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 52.9% | 1.89 | -3.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 52.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| El Paso Locomotive | 20.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive stats
Sacramento Republic and El Paso Locomotive recent form
| Sacramento Republic |
WWWDDW |
| El Paso Locomotive |
WLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sacramento Republic and El Paso Locomotive going into this match
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
El Paso Locomotive record
- They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Sacramento Republic wins
0Draws
4El Paso Locomotive wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-20 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-15 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-09-17 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-19 | El Paso Locomotive | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-03-13 | Sacramento Republic | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 25.1%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 3.62 | 4.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.69 | 3.75 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 3.62 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.88 | 4.94 |
| William Hill | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.62 ▲ +0.06
X
3.62 ▼ -0.10
2
4.80 ▼ -0.25
8 snapshots recorded, from .