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USL Championship · Full time ·Quarter-finals

Louisville City vs Miami FC

3 – 2 Full time

19′A. Rocha
32′R. Tori
58′R. Tori
61′A. Rogers
64′B. NdiayeH. Al Zubaidi
65′M. TunbridgeG. Diaz
65′A. DiaJ. Morris
65′K. LambertB. Dayes
78′B. NiangZ. Duncan
78′J. WilsonT. Showunmi
79′C. Donovan
80′J. SonoraTulu
88′M. RomeroA. Calfo
90′R. Serrano
90′T. Showunmi
90′A. Rocha

Lynn Family StadiumReferee: C. Radosav

Louisville City 63%
Draw 21%
Miami FC 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Louisville City vs Miami FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Louisville City vs Miami FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLouisville CityDrawMiami FC
Model61.4%23.2%15.5%
Market63.1%20.6%16.3%
Final62.7%21.2%16.1%
Edge-0.4%+0.7%-0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Louisville City

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.90.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Louisville Cit ↓ / Miami FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 11% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

Louisville City and Miami FC expected goals

Louisville City 1.97
Miami FC 0.90

Total expected goals: 2.87

Louisville City and Miami FC attack and defence ratings

Louisville City

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Miami FC

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Louisville City vs Miami FC: result vs prediction

Louisville City 3 – 2 Miami FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Quarter-finals fixtures

USL Championship

Before and after this match

Louisville City vs Miami FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Louisville City 62.7% 1.60 -0.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.7% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.0% 1.92 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.9% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 38.6% 2.59 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Louisville City62.7%
Draw21.2%
Miami FC16.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%
Both teams to scoreYes52.0%
No48.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.9%
12 (either side)78.8%
X2 (draw or away)37.3%
Handicap -1Louisville City win37.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.5%
Loss38.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
2-011.0%
1-010.2%

Louisville City vs Miami FC stats

Louisville City and Miami FC recent form

newest first
Louisville City WDWWWD
Miami FC DLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Louisville City and Miami FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Louisville City record

  • They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Miami FC record

  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Louisville City vs Miami FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Louisville City wins 0Draws 3Miami FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-23Miami FCLouisville CityUSL Championship4-3
2026-03-14Louisville CityMiami FCUSL Championship4-1
2025-10-11Louisville CityMiami FCUSL Championship1-0
2025-08-16Miami FCLouisville CityUSL Championship2-4
2024-10-02Louisville CityMiami FCUSL Championship3-0
2024-06-01Miami FCLouisville CityUSL Championship1-2
2023-09-20Miami FCLouisville CityUSL Championship4-3
2023-05-13Louisville CityMiami FCUSL Championship3-1
2022-08-27Miami FCLouisville CityUSL Championship1-0
2022-03-19Louisville CityMiami FCUSL Championship2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Louisville City vs Miami FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 63.1%, draw 20.6%, away 16.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.41 4.45 5.83
Bet365 1.48 3.90 5.50
BetVictor 1.45 4.50 5.75
Betano 1.47 4.30 5.30
Betfair 1.40 4.60 5.50
Dafabet 1.48 4.60 5.60
Marathonbet 1.40 4.45 5.60
Pinnacle 1.48 4.92 5.62
William Hill 1.44 4.40 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.45 ▲ +0.03
X 4.45 ▼ -0.15
2 5.60 ▲ +0.13

8 snapshots recorded, from .