Louisville City
vs
Detroit City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Louisville City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Louisville City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Louisville City vs Detroit City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Louisville City vs Detroit City
| Probability | Louisville City | Draw | Detroit City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.1% | 35.5% | 26.4% |
| Market | 45.9% | 27.2% | 26.9% |
| Final | 44.0% | 29.3% | 26.8% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +2.1% | -0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.05 − 1).
Louisville City vs Detroit City match preview
Louisville City faces Detroit City in a closely contested matchup, with Louisville City holding a 36% probability of victory compared to Detroit City's 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Louisville City, occurring at a rate of 14%. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Louisville City recording two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Detroit City has been more consistent with four wins, one draw, and one loss.
In terms of expected goals, Louisville City is projected to score 0.99, while Detroit City is slightly lower at 0.87. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 29%, and the chance of both teams scoring stands at 38%. Historically, the last five encounters between these teams have resulted in two wins for each side and one draw, indicating a balanced rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Louisville City and Detroit City expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.78
Louisville City and Detroit City attack and defence ratings
Louisville City
Detroit City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Loudoun United v Brooklyn — match page
- Charleston Battery vs Indy Eleven — team news & stats
- Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion — team news & stats
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX
- San Antonio vs Orange County SC
- Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Louisville City vs Detroit City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 44.0% | 2.28 | -1.9% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 44.0% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Detroit City | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 15.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.3% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Louisville City vs Detroit City stats
Louisville City and Detroit City recent form
| Louisville City |
WWWDWL |
| Detroit City |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Louisville City and Detroit City season so far
Louisville City record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Detroit City record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Louisville City vs Detroit City head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Louisville City | Detroit City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Detroit City | Louisville City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Louisville City | Detroit City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Detroit City | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Louisville City | Detroit City | USL Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Louisville City vs Detroit City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 27.2%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.30 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.30 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.39 | 3.53 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .