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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC

1 – 2 Full time

5′A. Rocha
45′D. Casciato
51′M. TunbridgeD. Mello
54′C. Ostrem
58′R. ToriT. Musto
60′R. Da Costa
63′B. SchaeferPedro Becker
63′M. MicalettoS. Cruz
63′L. PerezG. Vivi Quesada
72′R. Da CostaTulu
74′L. HiltonE. Conway
80′L. WykeL. Archer
82′B. NdiayeA. Calfo
83′M. RomeroJ. Levin
90′C. Ostrem

Al Lang StadiumReferee: S. Berna Rico

Tampa Bay Rowdies 66%
Draw 20%
Miami FC 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityTampa Bay RowdiesDrawMiami FC
Model57.2%23.3%19.4%
Market68.4%19.2%12.4%
Final65.6%20.2%14.1%
Edge-11.2%+4.1%+7.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Tampa Bay Rowdies

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.11.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Tampa Bay Rowd ↓ / Miami FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 8% 11% 5% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 6% 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC expected goals

Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.01
Miami FC 1.11

Total expected goals: 3.11

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC attack and defence ratings

Tampa Bay Rowdies

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Miami FC

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC: result vs prediction

Tampa Bay Rowdies 1 – 2 Miami FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Tampa Bay Rowdies 65.6% 1.52 -11.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 60.2% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.9% 1.70 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.9% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.8% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Tampa Bay Rowdies65.6%
Draw20.2%
Miami FC14.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%
Both teams to scoreYes58.9%
No41.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.9%
12 (either side)79.8%
X2 (draw or away)34.4%
Handicap -1Tampa Bay Rowdies win35.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.3%
Loss42.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.9%
2-19.9%
2-09.0%

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC stats

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC recent form

newest first
Tampa Bay Rowdies DWLWDL
Miami FC WWWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Miami FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Tampa Bay Rowdies record

  • They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Miami FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

9Tampa Bay Rowdies wins 1Draws 0Miami FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-25Miami FCTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship2-3
2026-05-16Miami FCTampa Bay RowdiesUSL League One Cup1-4
2025-06-14Tampa Bay RowdiesMiami FCUSL Championship2-1
2025-04-26Tampa Bay RowdiesMiami FCUSL League One Cup3-3
2025-03-22Miami FCTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship1-2
2024-08-24Tampa Bay RowdiesMiami FCUSL Championship2-0
2024-04-11Miami FCTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship2-5
2023-08-26Miami FCTampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship0-2
2023-04-08Tampa Bay RowdiesMiami FCUSL Championship2-0
2022-10-22Tampa Bay RowdiesMiami FCUSL Championship3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Miami FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 68.4%, draw 19.2%, away 12.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.35 5.41 8.00
Bet365 1.36 4.20 7.50
BetVictor 1.33 4.80 8.00
Betano 1.36 4.55 6.80
Betfair 1.30 4.75 7.50
Marathonbet 1.30 4.70 7.30
Pinnacle 1.37 5.27 7.34
William Hill 1.33 4.80 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.34 ▼ -0.01
X 4.78 ▲ +0.48
2 7.42 ▲ +0.92

10 snapshots recorded, from .