Birmingham Legion
vs
Loudoun United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham Legion
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United
| Probability | Birmingham Legion | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.2% | 25.6% | 32.2% |
| Market | 46.2% | 25.0% | 28.7% |
| Final | 45.2% | 25.2% | 29.6% |
| Edge | -4.0% | +0.5% | +3.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United match preview
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United are set to face off in the USL Championship, with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Birmingham Legion holds a 42% probability of winning, while Loudoun United stands at 34%, with a 24% chance for a draw. The expected goals for Birmingham Legion are 1.81, compared to Loudoun United's 1.61. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Birmingham Legion.
In terms of recent form, Birmingham Legion has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Loudoun United, on the other hand, has experienced a more challenging run with two wins and three losses. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows Birmingham Legion with one win, Loudoun United with one win, and two matches ending in draws. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 68%, and there is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings
Birmingham Legion
Loudoun United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham Legion | 45.2% | 2.21 | -4.0% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham Legion | 45.2% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Loudoun United | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.8% |
| No | 36.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham Legion win | 22.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.7% |
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United stats
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United recent form
| Birmingham Legion |
WLWLDD |
| Loudoun United |
LWDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham Legion and Loudoun United season so far
Birmingham Legion record
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Loudoun United record
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Birmingham Legion | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Loudoun United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Loudoun United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Birmingham Legion | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-3 |
| 2024-09-14 | Loudoun United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 4-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | Birmingham Legion | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-06-22 | Birmingham Legion | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-15 | Loudoun United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2022-07-28 | Birmingham Legion | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 6-1 |
| 2022-04-24 | Loudoun United | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham Legion vs Loudoun United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 24.7%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.17 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.88 | 3.27 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .