USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Detroit City
vs
Birmingham Legion
1 – 0 Full time
| 22′ | K. Hernandez-Foster | ||
| 29′ | M. Rodriguez | ||
| 58′ | P. Vassell | ||
| 66′ | K. WilliamsJ. Cedeno | ||
| 66′ | A. DiopR. Williams | ||
| 70′ | R. DamusS. Saucedo | ||
| 70′ | P. VassellS. McIllhatton | ||
| 75′ | G. Diarbian | ||
| 76′ | A. DioufA. Dalou | ||
| 82′ | A. Dalou | ||
| 82′ | D. McCartneyT. Pasher | ||
| 87′ | M. RodriguezC. Niang | ||
| 90′ | S. McIllhatton | ||
| 90′ | D. Smith |
Detroit City
58%
Draw
24%
Birmingham Legion
18%
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion
| Probability | Detroit City | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.2% | 23.3% | 15.6% |
| Market | 56.8% | 24.1% | 19.1% |
| Final | 57.9% | 23.9% | 18.2% |
| Edge | +4.4% | -0.8% | -3.6% |
Why Detroit City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Detroit City below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Detroit City and Birmingham Legion expected goals
Detroit City
1.96
Birmingham Legion
0.90
Total expected goals: 2.86
Detroit City and Birmingham Legion attack and defence ratings
Detroit City
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
0.57 -43%
Birmingham Legion
Attack
1.34 +34%
Defence
1.46 +46%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion: result vs prediction
Detroit City 1 – 0 Birmingham Legion
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Detroit City | 57.9% | 1.73 | +4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Detroit City | 57.9% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Birmingham Legion | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Detroit City win | 37.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 38.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-0 | 11.0% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion stats
Detroit City and Birmingham Legion recent form
| Detroit City |
WDWLDD |
| Birmingham Legion |
WLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Detroit City and Birmingham Legion going into this match
Detroit City record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Birmingham Legion record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
6Detroit City wins
2Draws
1Birmingham Legion wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Birmingham Legion | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Birmingham Legion | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Detroit City | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-17 | Birmingham Legion | Detroit City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-26 | Detroit City | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-27 | Birmingham Legion | Detroit City | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2023-05-27 | Detroit City | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-08-18 | Birmingham Legion | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-04-15 | Detroit City | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Detroit City vs Birmingham Legion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.8%, draw 24.1%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.33 | 4.88 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 3.72 | 4.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.13 | 4.88 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.61 ▲ +0.04
X
3.80 ▲ +0.10
2
4.78 ▼ -0.07
10 snapshots recorded, from .