Hartford Athletic
vs
Rhode Island
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hartford Athletic
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hartford Athletic is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island
| Probability | Hartford Athletic | Draw | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 30.9% | 32.0% |
| Market | 37.1% | 28.5% | 34.4% |
| Final | 37.1% | 29.1% | 33.8% |
| Edge | -0.0% | +0.6% | -0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.6% per unit staked (our 37.1% × 2.57 − 1).
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island match preview
Hartford Athletic faces Rhode Island in a USL Championship matchup on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Hartford Athletic has a 37% chance of winning, while Rhode Island sits at 32%, with a 31% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Hartford, with an 11% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Hartford will score 1.20, compared to Rhode Island's 1.10.
Recent form indicates Hartford Athletic has struggled, recording one win and four draws in their last six matches, while Rhode Island has seen more success with two wins and a draw in their last six. In their last four encounters, Hartford has won once, drawn once, and lost twice to Rhode Island. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island attack and defence ratings
Hartford Athletic
Rhode Island
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Loudoun United v Brooklyn — match page
- Charleston Battery vs Indy Eleven — team news & stats
- Louisville City v Detroit City — match page
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion — team news & stats
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX
- San Antonio vs Orange County SC
- Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 37.1% | 2.69 | -0.0% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 37.1% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Rhode Island | 33.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.1% |
| No | 51.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hartford Athletic win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 11.3% | |
| 1-0 | 10.7% |
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island stats
Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island recent form
| Hartford Athletic |
LDLDDW |
| Rhode Island |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hartford Athletic and Rhode Island season so far
Hartford Athletic record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rhode Island record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Rhode Island | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Rhode Island | Hartford Athletic | US Open Cup | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Hartford Athletic | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Rhode Island | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 28.5%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.12 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.10 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.41 | 3.12 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.22 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 2.90 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .