Orange County SC
vs
FC Tulsa
1 – 5 Full time
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa
| Probability | Orange County SC | Draw | FC Tulsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 29.7% | 26.3% |
| Market | 39.1% | 27.7% | 33.2% |
| Final | 40.3% | 28.2% | 31.5% |
| Edge | +5.0% | +2.0% | -6.9% |
Why Orange County SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.02.
- The market prices Orange County SC below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orange County SC and FC Tulsa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Orange County SC and FC Tulsa attack and defence ratings
Orange County SC
FC Tulsa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa: result vs prediction
Orange County SC 1 – 5 FC Tulsa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 40.3% | 2.48 | +5.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 40.3% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| FC Tulsa | 31.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orange County SC win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.3% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa stats
Orange County SC and FC Tulsa recent form
| Orange County SC |
LLWWDD |
| FC Tulsa |
LLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orange County SC and FC Tulsa going into this match
Orange County SC record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Tulsa record
- They have won 10 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | FC Tulsa | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | FC Tulsa | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-04 | Orange County SC | FC Tulsa | USL Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orange County SC vs FC Tulsa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.2%, draw 27.7%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.33 | 3.28 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.30 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.28 | 2.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.51 | 2.79 |
| Superbet | 2.37 | 3.25 | 2.77 |
| Unibet | 2.18 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .