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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa

2 – 1 Full time

6′D. Badji
39′L. Biasi
46′D. RiveraT. Schmitt
46′K. ElmedkharS. Lukic
65′A. OrdonezB. Sparks
66′R. CabralL. Dorsey
74′W. WilsonB. Diallo
74′D. GomezG. Studenhofft
75′R. CzichosA. Essengue
81′J. SangwaL. Stauffer
84′L. BiasiC. Smith
84′D. BadjiA. Pelayo
88′G. Studenhofft
90′Ian
90′D. Pierre

Wild Horse Pass StadiumReferee: M. Hassan

Phoenix Rising 43%
Draw 27%
FC Tulsa 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPhoenix RisingDrawFC Tulsa
Model29.2%33.4%37.4%
Market47.4%25.2%27.4%
Final42.9%27.2%29.9%
Edge-18.2%+8.2%+10.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Phoenix Rising ↓ / FC Tulsa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 13% 8% 1 11% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Phoenix Rising and FC Tulsa expected goals

Phoenix Rising 0.92
FC Tulsa 1.08

Total expected goals: 2.01

Phoenix Rising and FC Tulsa attack and defence ratings

Phoenix Rising

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.05 +5%

FC Tulsa

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 0.59 -41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa: result vs prediction

Phoenix Rising 2 – 1 FC Tulsa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Phoenix Rising 42.9% 2.33 -18.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 58.8% 1.70 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.8% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.8% 1.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Phoenix Rising42.9%
Draw27.2%
FC Tulsa29.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%
Both teams to scoreYes41.2%
No58.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.1%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)57.1%
Handicap -1Phoenix Rising win10.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss70.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-014.8%
1-114.8%
0-113.2%

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa stats

Phoenix Rising and FC Tulsa recent form

newest first
Phoenix Rising DWDWLD
FC Tulsa DWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Phoenix Rising and FC Tulsa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Phoenix Rising record

  • They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Tulsa record

  • They have won 10 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Phoenix Rising wins 5Draws 2FC Tulsa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-29FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUSL Championship1-1
2025-11-09FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUSL Championship1-0
2025-06-15FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUSL Championship1-1
2025-04-17FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUS Open Cup1-1
2025-03-09Phoenix RisingFC TulsaUSL Championship0-1
2024-09-07Phoenix RisingFC TulsaUSL Championship1-0
2024-04-06FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUSL Championship3-3
2023-09-10FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUSL Championship0-0
2019-07-28FC TulsaPhoenix RisingUSL Championship0-1
2019-06-08Phoenix RisingFC TulsaUSL Championship5-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Phoenix Rising vs FC Tulsa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.1%, draw 25.6%, away 27.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.90 3.52 3.46
Bet365 1.90 3.60 3.30
Betano 1.93 3.60 3.30
Betfair 1.91 3.60 3.30
Dafabet 1.99 3.45 3.45
Marathonbet 1.88 3.52 3.40
Pinnacle 1.95 3.79 3.54
Unibet 1.96 3.30 3.30
William Hill 1.91 3.40 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.91 ▼ -0.05
X 3.60 ▲ +0.20
2 3.30 ▼ -0.12

10 snapshots recorded, from .