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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising

1 – 1 Full time

55′F. Barajas
68′D. GomezT. Schmitt
68′R. CzichosA. Essengue
68′D. BadjiG. Studenhofft
69′J. GarciaQ. Elliot
79′D. Flores
80′S. LletgetF. Canete
80′N. RossJacob Montes
82′I. PaulD. Otoya
86′I. SackoL. Biasi
88′R. Nakamura
90′D. FloresD. Rivera

Cardinale StadiumReferee: E. Garcia

Monterey Bay 30%
Draw 25%
Phoenix Rising 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonterey BayDrawPhoenix Rising
Model33.0%25.6%41.3%
Market29.3%24.9%45.8%
Final30.2%25.1%44.7%
Edge+3.8%+0.7%-4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Phoenix Rising

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monterey Bay ↓ / Phoenix Rising → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 12% 9% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising expected goals

Monterey Bay 1.48
Phoenix Rising 1.67

Total expected goals: 3.16

Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising attack and defence ratings

Monterey Bay

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Phoenix Rising

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising: result vs prediction

Monterey Bay 1 – 1 Phoenix Rising

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Phoenix Rising 44.7% 2.24 -4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.0% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.8% 1.57 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.9% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 58.7% 1.70 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monterey Bay30.2%
Draw25.1%
Phoenix Rising44.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%
Both teams to scoreYes63.8%
No36.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.3%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)69.8%
Handicap -1Phoenix Rising win21.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss58.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.6%
1-28.8%
2-17.8%

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising stats

Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising recent form

newest first
Monterey Bay DLDLLL
Phoenix Rising WDWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monterey Bay and Phoenix Rising going into this match

league record before kick-off

Monterey Bay record

  • They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Phoenix Rising record

  • They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Monterey Bay wins 2Draws 4Phoenix Rising wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-19Phoenix RisingMonterey BayUSL Championship3-2
2025-05-18Phoenix RisingMonterey BayUSL Championship2-0
2025-03-30Monterey BayPhoenix RisingUSL Championship3-1
2024-10-05Phoenix RisingMonterey BayUSL Championship1-2
2024-03-17Monterey BayPhoenix RisingUSL Championship1-0
2023-07-30Monterey BayPhoenix RisingUSL Championship0-2
2023-04-16Phoenix RisingMonterey BayUSL Championship1-1
2022-09-22Monterey BayPhoenix RisingUSL Championship3-3
2022-03-13Phoenix RisingMonterey BayUSL Championship4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Monterey Bay vs Phoenix Rising odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 30.1%, draw 25.2%, away 44.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.10 3.65 1.99
Bet365 3.00 3.60 2.00
BetVictor 3.30 3.70 1.95
Betano 2.72 3.45 2.25
Betfair 2.75 3.50 2.25
Dafabet 2.75 3.60 2.32
Marathonbet 3.04 3.65 1.97
Pinnacle 3.17 3.97 2.07
Unibet 2.50 3.25 2.43
William Hill 3.10 3.60 1.95

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▲ +0.20
X 3.65 ▲ +0.25
2 1.98 ▼ -0.17

8 snapshots recorded, from .