Monterey Bay
vs
Sacramento Republic
1 – 1 Full time
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic
| Probability | Monterey Bay | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.2% | 26.2% | 51.6% |
| Market | 25.6% | 26.7% | 47.8% |
| Final | 24.7% | 26.6% | 48.7% |
| Edge | -3.4% | -0.4% | +3.8% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sacramento Republic below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterey Bay and Sacramento Republic expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Monterey Bay and Sacramento Republic attack and defence ratings
Monterey Bay
Sacramento Republic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic: result vs prediction
Monterey Bay 1 – 1 Sacramento Republic
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 48.7% | 2.05 | +3.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterey Bay | 24.7% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Sacramento Republic | 48.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 9.7% |
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic stats
Monterey Bay and Sacramento Republic recent form
| Monterey Bay |
LDLLLL |
| Sacramento Republic |
DWDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterey Bay and Sacramento Republic going into this match
Monterey Bay record
- They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Sacramento Republic | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Monterey Bay | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Sacramento Republic | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.6%, draw 26.7%, away 47.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 3.42 | 1.89 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.40 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.93 |
| Marathonbet | 3.54 | 3.42 | 1.87 |
| Pinnacle | 3.67 | 3.65 | 1.92 |
| Unibet | 3.15 | 3.05 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .