USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Orange County SC
vs
Sacramento Republic
1 – 1 Full time
| 19′ | T. Wolff | ||
| 61′ | C. Hegardt | ||
| 62′ | B. WilleyA. Midence | ||
| 62′ | C. JenningsK. Edwards | ||
| 66′ | R. SpauldingT. Leibold | ||
| 66′ | T. WolffM. Malango | ||
| 69′ | L. MacKinnonM. Bunbury | ||
| 71′ | D. Crisostomo | ||
| 75′ | O. Sylla | ||
| 79′ | S. Kelly | ||
| 81′ | F. KleemannA. Essel | ||
| 82′ | O. SyllaT. Espy | ||
| 83′ | C. HegardtM. Palomino | ||
| 83′ | A. Essel | ||
| 90′ | T. Brewitt |
Orange County SC
28%
Draw
27%
Sacramento Republic
45%
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic
| Probability | Orange County SC | Draw | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.6% | 25.9% | 45.5% |
| Market | 28.4% | 26.9% | 44.7% |
| Final | 28.4% | 26.7% | 44.9% |
| Edge | +0.1% | -1.0% | +0.8% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.31.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Orange County SC and Sacramento Republic expected goals
Orange County SC
1.31
Sacramento Republic
1.70
Total expected goals: 3.02
Orange County SC and Sacramento Republic attack and defence ratings
Orange County SC
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
1.40 +40%
Sacramento Republic
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
0.76 -24%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic: result vs prediction
Orange County SC 1 – 1 Sacramento Republic
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 44.9% | 2.23 | +0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orange County SC | 28.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Sacramento Republic | 44.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 24.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.2% |
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic stats
Orange County SC and Sacramento Republic recent form
| Orange County SC |
DLLLWW |
| Sacramento Republic |
DDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orange County SC and Sacramento Republic going into this match
Orange County SC record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
4Orange County SC wins
2Draws
3Sacramento Republic wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sacramento Republic | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-03 | Sacramento Republic | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Sacramento Republic | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Orange County SC | Sacramento Republic | USL League One Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Orange County SC | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Orange County SC | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-10 | Sacramento Republic | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-27 | Sacramento Republic | Orange County SC | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2023-05-18 | Orange County SC | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orange County SC vs Sacramento Republic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 26.8%, away 44.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 3.22 | 3.38 | 2.03 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 3.16 | 3.38 | 2.01 |
| Pinnacle | 3.35 | 3.60 | 2.11 |
| Unibet | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.21 ▼ -0.24
X
3.39 ▼ -0.06
2
2.04 ▲ +0.13
8 snapshots recorded, from .