Sacramento Republic
vs
Phoenix Rising
2 – 2 Full time
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising
| Probability | Sacramento Republic | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.5% | 28.1% | 17.4% |
| Market | 50.9% | 25.8% | 23.3% |
| Final | 51.8% | 26.4% | 21.8% |
| Edge | +3.6% | +2.2% | -5.8% |
Why Sacramento Republic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sacramento Republic below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.30
Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising attack and defence ratings
Sacramento Republic
Phoenix Rising
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising: result vs prediction
Sacramento Republic 2 – 2 Phoenix Rising
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 51.8% | 1.93 | +3.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sacramento Republic | 51.8% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Phoenix Rising | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sacramento Republic win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 11.8% |
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising stats
Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising recent form
| Sacramento Republic |
WDLWWD |
| Phoenix Rising |
WLDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sacramento Republic and Phoenix Rising going into this match
Sacramento Republic record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
Phoenix Rising record
- They have won 7 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Phoenix Rising | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Sacramento Republic | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Phoenix Rising | Sacramento Republic | USL Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 26.0%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.64 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.65 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.64 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.89 | 3.97 |
| Superbet | 1.83 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| Unibet | 1.88 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .