Puerto Cabello
vs
Monagas SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Puerto Cabello
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Puerto Cabello is the favourite, not a value bet.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC
| Probability | Puerto Cabello | Draw | Monagas SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.6% | 25.1% | 20.3% |
| Market | 56.0% | 24.9% | 19.1% |
| Final | 55.6% | 25.0% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.0% | +0.3% |
Why Puerto Cabello
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (our 55.6% × 1.67 − 1).
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC match preview
Puerto Cabello enters the match against Monagas SC with a 56% probability of winning, while Monagas SC has a 19% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Puerto Cabello, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for Puerto Cabello and 1.04 for Monagas SC. Additionally, there is a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Puerto Cabello has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Monagas SC has struggled, managing only one win in their last six encounters. The head-to-head record over the last ten matches shows Puerto Cabello with four wins, four draws, and two wins for Monagas SC, indicating a competitive rivalry.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC attack and defence ratings
Puerto Cabello
Monagas SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 55.6% | 1.80 | -0.4% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 55.6% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Monagas SC | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win | 31.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC stats
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC recent form
| Puerto Cabello |
WLLLWD |
| Monagas SC |
LLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC season so far
Puerto Cabello record
- They have won 15 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 38 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monagas SC record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2026-10-18 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 3-3 |
| 2026-04-25 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-10-21 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-06 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela | 2-3 |
| 2025-08-03 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-29 | Monagas SC | Puerto Cabello | Copa Venezuela | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Puerto Cabello | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.0%, draw 24.9%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 3.64 | 4.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 3.64 | 4.65 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.50 | 4.75 |