Monagas SC
vs
Deportivo Tachira FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Deportivo Tachira FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.38.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Deportivo Tachira FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC
| Probability | Monagas SC | Draw | Deportivo Tachira FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.6% | 22.5% | 53.8% |
| Market | 24.4% | 28.5% | 47.2% |
| Final | 24.2% | 27.0% | 48.8% |
| Edge | -0.2% | -1.5% | +1.7% |
Why Deportivo Tachira FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.3% per unit staked (our 48.8% × 2.00 − 1).
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC match preview
Monagas SC faces Deportivo Tachira FC in the Venezuela Primera División with the model suggesting a 26% chance of a Monagas SC victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 50% likelihood of a Deportivo Tachira FC win. The expected goals indicate Monagas SC at 1.40 and Deportivo Tachira FC at 1.96, highlighting a potential edge for the visitors.
Recent form shows Monagas SC with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Deportivo Tachira FC has been in strong form, winning four and drawing one. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record favors Deportivo Tachira FC, who have won six of the last ten encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.51
Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC attack and defence ratings
Monagas SC
Deportivo Tachira FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Tachira FC | 48.8% | 2.05 | +1.7% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monagas SC | 24.2% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Deportivo Tachira FC | 48.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Tachira FC win | 33.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-2 | 6.8% |
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC stats
Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC recent form
| Monagas SC |
LWLLDW |
| Deportivo Tachira FC |
WWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monagas SC and Deportivo Tachira FC season so far
Monagas SC record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
Deportivo Tachira FC record
- They have won 21 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-0 |
| 2026-10-21 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela | 1-1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Monagas SC | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-3 |
| 2025-09-03 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-20 | Monagas SC | Deportivo Tachira FC | Copa Venezuela | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-31 | Monagas SC | Deportivo Tachira FC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-4 |
| 2024-09-15 | Monagas SC | Deportivo Tachira FC | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-21 | Deportivo Tachira FC | Monagas SC | Primera División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.4%, draw 28.5%, away 47.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.85 | 3.10 | 1.90 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.90 |
| Betano | 3.75 | 3.15 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.74 | 3.10 | 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 4.09 | 3.10 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .