Deportivo La Guaira
vs
Carabobo FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Carabobo FC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.25.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC
| Probability | Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | Carabobo FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.9% | 26.5% | 45.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.9% | 26.5% | 45.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Carabobo FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC match preview
Deportivo La Guaira faces Carabobo FC in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a stronger chance for Carabobo FC, with a 50% likelihood of winning compared to Deportivo La Guaira's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a 10% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 60% chance of both teams scoring and a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Deportivo La Guaira struggling, with five consecutive matches without a win (D-L-D-L-D-L), while Carabobo FC has shown more resilience, recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches (D-W-W-D-W-D). In their last ten encounters, Deportivo La Guaira has secured only one win, while Carabobo FC has four victories and five draws, indicating a competitive history between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC attack and defence ratings
Deportivo La Guaira
Carabobo FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carabobo FC | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 27.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Carabobo FC | 45.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Carabobo FC win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 54.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 0-1 | 8.0% |
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC stats
Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC recent form
| Deportivo La Guaira |
WDLDLD |
| Carabobo FC |
WDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo La Guaira and Carabobo FC season so far
Deportivo La Guaira record
- They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carabobo FC record
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | Carabobo FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2026-09-15 | Carabobo FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Deportivo La Guaira | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Carabobo FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-17 | Deportivo La Guaira | Carabobo FC | Venezuela Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-10 | Carabobo FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Deportivo La Guaira | Carabobo FC | Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Carabobo FC | Deportivo La Guaira | Primera División | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-19 | Deportivo La Guaira | Carabobo FC | Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-27 | Deportivo La Guaira | Carabobo FC | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.