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Venezuela Primera División · ·Clausura - Quadrangular - 4

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Metropolitanos FC

1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.05.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Metropolitanos FC

Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas

Metropolitanos FC 49%
Draw 27%
Carabobo FC 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Chance Metropolitanos FC wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
92%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
53%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
10% of simulated outcomes

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMetropolitanos FCDrawCarabobo FC
Model49.0%27.2%23.7%
Market———
Final49.0%27.2%23.7%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Metropolitanos FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.05.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC match preview

Metropolitanos FC faces Carabobo FC in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home team, with a 49% chance of victory compared to Carabobo's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a 10% probability. Both teams show a tendency to score, with a 53% likelihood for both teams to find the net and a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.

Recent form indicates that Metropolitanos FC has drawn their last three matches but won two of their previous five, while Carabobo FC has maintained a strong performance with four wins in their last six outings. In their last ten head-to-head encounters, Carabobo has the upper hand with five wins, while Metropolitanos has secured just one victory. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Metropolitanos ↓ / Carabobo FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC expected goals

Metropolitanos FC 1.61
Carabobo FC 1.05

Total expected goals: 2.66

Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC attack and defence ratings

Metropolitanos FC

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Carabobo FC

Attack 1.26 +26%
Defence 0.76 -24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 4 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Metropolitanos FC 49.0% 2.04 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.3% 1.88 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.0% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Metropolitanos FC49.0%
Draw27.2%
Carabobo FC23.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.3%
No46.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.3%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)51.0%
Handicap -1Metropolitanos FC win26.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss51.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.0%
1-010.0%
2-19.5%
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Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC stats

Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC recent form

newest first
Metropolitanos FC DDDWWW
Carabobo FC WWDWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Metropolitanos FC and Carabobo FC season so far

league record

Metropolitanos FC record

  • They have won 19 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Carabobo FC record

  • They have won 15 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 15 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Metropolitanos FC wins 4Draws 5Carabobo FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-16Carabobo FCMetropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División1-0
2026-05-31Metropolitanos FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División1-5
2026-05-03Carabobo FCMetropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División0-0
2026-02-20Metropolitanos FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División1-1
2025-11-05Metropolitanos FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División0-4
2025-10-22Carabobo FCMetropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División1-0
2025-08-02Carabobo FCMetropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División0-0
2025-06-07Carabobo FCMetropolitanos FCVenezuela Primera División2-2
2025-05-02Metropolitanos FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División1-3
2025-02-23Metropolitanos FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Metropolitanos FC vs Carabobo FC odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.

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Prediction snapshot 1 Metropolitanos FC Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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