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Venezuela Primera División · ·Clausura - Quadrangular - 4

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira

Garuda Lions Prediction: Portuguesa FC

1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 1.05.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Portuguesa FC

Estadio General Jose Antonio Paez, Araure

Portuguesa FC 44%
Draw 29%
Deportivo La Guaira 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Chance Portuguesa FC wins
44%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
90%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
50%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
11% of simulated outcomes

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPortuguesa FCDrawDeportivo La Guaira
Model43.7%29.3%27.0%
Market———
Final43.7%29.3%27.0%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Portuguesa FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 1.05.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira match preview

Portuguesa FC faces Deportivo La Guaira in a matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home side, with a 44% chance of victory compared to 27% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Expected goals indicate Portuguesa FC at 1.40 and Deportivo La Guaira at 1.05, highlighting a potential advantage for the hosts in offensive output.

Recent form shows Portuguesa FC with a mixed record of D-L-D-D-L-W, while Deportivo La Guaira has struggled, recording L-D-L-D-L-L in their last six matches. In their last ten encounters, Deportivo La Guaira has the upper hand with four wins, while Portuguesa FC has secured two victories and there have been four draws. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Portuguesa FC ↓ / Deportivo La G → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 11% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira expected goals

Portuguesa FC 1.40
Deportivo La Guaira 1.05

Total expected goals: 2.46

Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira attack and defence ratings

Portuguesa FC

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Deportivo La Guaira

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Clausura - Quadrangular - 4 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Portuguesa FC 43.7% 2.29 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.4% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.3% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Portuguesa FC43.7%
Draw29.3%
Deportivo La Guaira27.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%
Both teams to scoreYes50.4%
No49.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.0%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)56.3%
Handicap -1Portuguesa FC win21.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss56.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.9%
1-010.7%
0-09.8%
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Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira stats

Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira recent form

newest first
Portuguesa FC DLDDLW
Deportivo La Guaira LDLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Portuguesa FC and Deportivo La Guaira season so far

league record

Portuguesa FC record

  • They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Deportivo La Guaira record

  • They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Portuguesa FC wins 4Draws 4Deportivo La Guaira wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-10Portuguesa FCDeportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División0-0
2026-05-23Portuguesa FCDeportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División0-2
2026-05-09Deportivo La GuairaPortuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División1-1
2026-04-20Deportivo La GuairaPortuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División0-0
2025-08-31Deportivo La GuairaPortuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División3-1
2025-06-09Deportivo La GuairaPortuguesa FCVenezuela Primera División1-1
2025-05-04Portuguesa FCDeportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División1-2
2025-03-31Portuguesa FCDeportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División1-3
2024-10-04Portuguesa FCDeportivo La GuairaPrimera División2-1
2024-04-07Deportivo La GuairaPortuguesa FCPrimera División0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Portuguesa FC vs Deportivo La Guaira odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.

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Prediction snapshot 1 Portuguesa FC Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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