Ammanford AFC
vs
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0 – 2 Full time
Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
| Probability | Ammanford AFC | Draw | GAP Connah S Quay FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.5% | 22.6% | 57.9% |
| Market | 10.0% | 18.1% | 71.9% |
| Final | 12.4% | 19.2% | 68.4% |
| Edge | +9.4% | +4.6% | -14.0% |
Why GAP Connah S Quay FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ammanford AFC and GAP Connah S Quay FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Ammanford AFC and GAP Connah S Quay FC attack and defence ratings
Ammanford AFC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: result vs prediction
Ammanford AFC 0 – 2 GAP Connah S Quay FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 68.4% | 1.46 | -14.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.6% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ammanford AFC | 12.4% |
| Draw | 19.2% | |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 68.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 31.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | GAP Connah S Quay FC win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 42.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.5% |
Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC stats
Ammanford AFC and GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form
| Ammanford AFC |
LDL |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC |
WWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Ammanford AFC and GAP Connah S Quay FC going into this match
Ammanford AFC record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GAP Connah S Quay FC record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ammanford AFC vs GAP Connah S Quay FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 10.0%, draw 18.1%, away 71.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 12.00 | 5.50 | 1.20 |
| 1xBet | 11.00 | 5.10 | 1.23 |
| 888Sport | 13.00 | 5.75 | 1.20 |
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.00 | 1.22 |
| Betano | 8.50 | 4.70 | 1.30 |
| Betfair | 11.00 | 5.00 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 9.40 | 5.20 | 1.30 |
| Marathonbet | 10.50 | 5.10 | 1.22 |
| Pinnacle | 7.67 | 4.48 | 1.24 |
| SBO | 7.62 | 4.41 | 1.28 |
| Superbet | 8.10 | 4.90 | 1.29 |
| Unibet | 8.50 | 4.60 | 1.28 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 4.60 | 1.30 |