Bermuda
vs
St. Lucia
Garuda Lions Prediction: St. Lucia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.53.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bermuda vs St. Lucia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bermuda vs St. Lucia
| Probability | Bermuda | Draw | St. Lucia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.7% | 18.7% | 61.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 19.7% | 18.7% | 61.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why St. Lucia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.69 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Bermuda vs St. Lucia match preview
Bermuda faces St. Lucia in the CONCACAF Nations League with a significant disparity in predicted outcomes. According to our model, Bermuda has a 20% chance of winning, while St. Lucia stands at 62%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with an 8% likelihood. Bermuda's expected goals are 1.53, in contrast to St. Lucia's 2.69, indicating a potential challenge for the home side.
Recent form shows Bermuda struggling with six consecutive matches without a win (L-L-L-L-D-L), while St. Lucia has had a mixed run, winning three of their last six (W-W-W-L-W-L). The probability of over 2.5 goals is high at 79%, and both teams are expected to score, with a 74% likelihood.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bermuda and St. Lucia expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.22
Bermuda and St. Lucia attack and defence ratings
Bermuda
St. Lucia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League B - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bermuda vs St. Lucia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Lucia | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.2% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St. Lucia win | 42.1% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bermuda | 19.7% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| St. Lucia | 61.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.6% |
| No | 26.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Lucia win | 42.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 38.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.1% |
| 1-3 | 7.3% | |
| 1-1 | 6.7% |
Bermuda vs St. Lucia stats
Bermuda vs St. Lucia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | St. Lucia | Bermuda | CONCACAF Nations League | 5-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.